Circa Million IV NFL Week 8 Picks

Last week was a slight step back from my previous two weeks (8-1-1 from Week 5-6) in the Circa Million IV but a winning one nonetheless.

Week 7 Recap (3-2):

  • BROWNS +6.5 at Ravens ✅
  • FALCONS +6.5 at Bengals ❌
  • Colts at TITANS -2.5
  • STEELERS +7 at Dolphins ✅
  • Seahawks at CHARGERS -5.5

My season-long record climbed to 19-14-2 and I rank 980th out of 4,680 Circa Million IV entries. I got a headstart in Week 8 by booking a win when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-22 on Thursday Night Football.

Circa Million IV NFL Week 8 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

  1. Ravens +2 ✅
  2. Jaguars -2.5
  3. Cowboys -9.5
  4. Colts -3
  5. Titans -2.5

Baltimore Ravens (+2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since all of your picks must be submitted at once in the Circa Million IV, you need to be really confident if submitting early with a selection in the TNF game.

As you can read here, I was extremely confident the Ravens would smash the Buccaneers.

Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level and Tom Brady looks like he’s finally too old for football. Even if Brady isn’t washed, Baltimore is a much better team than Tampa.

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) in London

I’ve already broken Broncos-Jaguars down in detail but Jacksonville has a significant edge in coaching and that will be a factor overseas.

The Jaguars have played in London in nine of the past 10 seasons and Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson made a London trip in 2018 while coaching the Philadelphia Eagles.

Denver rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett can’t get anything right and the Russell Wilson experience has been a disaster. I’m fading Denver vs. a Jacksonville team that’s better than its record.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

In addition to my Bears-Cowboys handicap earlier this week, Chicago trading 3-time Pro Bowler Robert Quinn to the Eagles shows the Bears are packing it in. Bears LB Roquan Smith knows what this means for the team.

The Cowboys already have several edges in this matchup but the Bears could be checked-out Sunday knowing their front office is already planning for the future.

More importantly, this is a great spot for Dallas. The Cowboys are 11-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record and Dallas is 3-1-0 ATS when favored 7.5 or more points with a +10.9 ATS margin.

Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

In a battle of backup quarterbacks, gimme the better offensive coach and the home team. Also, I have a sick read on this Colts team and have won betting their games for three consecutive weeks and counting.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Houston Texans

Titans-Texans is the only handicap I haven’t published on OutKick because I was awaiting injury news on Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, which didn’t go my way.

Tennessee announced Saturday that backup rookie QB Malik Willis would be making his first career start vs. Houston in Week 8.

This is the perfect example of why it’s dangerous to submit contest picks before the final injury reports are released on Friday.

But, I was willing to gamble on this possibility because the Titans should trample the Texans either way. Willis is even more athletic than Tannehill and this should be a Derrick Henry game.

Henry has rushed for at least 211 yards in his previous three games against Houston with 7 TDs. The Texans’ defense is 27th in rushing success rate and 22nd in rushing expected points added per play.


FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.


PointsBet Sportsbook users can make their first bets risk-free up to $2,000. If the bet loses, PointsBet will refund you in site credit. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.

First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.

Written by Geoff Clark

Leave a Reply