As you can see, Week 4 was my first losing week of 2022 and my Circa Million IV record has fallen to 8-7. My best bet came through gloriously as the Jaguars beat the brakes off of the Chargers 38-10 in L.A.
The Seahawks’ and Texans’ losses were tough luck. Seattle had a would-be go-ahead drive in the 4th quarter fail on Atlanta’s side of the field. Houston threw an interception on its own side of the field that lead to a game-winning field goal for Chicago.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Co. overwhelmed the Patriots physically to get me a 2nd win on my Week 3 card. Philly pummelled Washington 24-8 and the Commanders didn’t belong on the same field as the Eagles.
- JAGUARS +7 at Chargers✅
- Falcons at SEAHAWKS pick ’em❌
- TEXANS +2.5 at Bears❌
- RAVENS -2.5 at Patriots✅
- Eagles at WASHINGTON +6.5❌
Circa NFL Week 4 Picks
- Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, fifth is least.
- JAGUARS +6.5 at Eagles
- Bills at RAVENS +3
- Jets at STEELERS -3
- Chiefs at BUCCANEERS pick ’em
- RAMS +1.5 at 49ers
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
Going back to the well with the Jaguars as my best bet for the Week 4 slate. Essentially, Philly’s home-field and roster talent edges aren’t big enough to overcome Jacksonville having the better quarterback and coach.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens +3
The bottom line here is Baltimore should be a slight home favorite considering all the injuries to Buffalo’s secondary and how well Lamar is playing. But, the Ravens are 4-0 against the spread as home underdogs since Lamar became the starter in 2019.
Also, Buffalo’s offensive line is atrocious and the Ravens have by far the best special teams in the NFL. Both of these factors could be further exacerbated if Bills-Ravens is a “bad weather” game. The weather forecast is predicting rainy conditions with wind gusts up to 30+ mph.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Pittsburgh has never finished with a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin and these are the games the Steelers generally pull out.
Jets 2nd-year QB Zach Wilson returns to action in Week 4 and I expect Pittsburgh’s defense to welcome him back to football harshly.
Finally, Pittsburgh’s spread has gone to -3.5 while the Jets-Steelers contest line is locked in at the Pittsburgh laying 3 points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick ‘Em
There’s sketchy line movement in Chiefs-Buccaneers. Roughly 80% of the cash at DraftKings Sportsbook is on K.C., according to VSIN. But, Tampa has gone from a 2-point underdog on the opener up to a slight favorite.
More importantly, fading the public by betting on a Tom Brady-led team rarely fails. Every time the public thinks someone has the edge over TB12, they are proven wrong.
Los Angeles Rams +1.5 at San Francisco 49ers
Rams-49ers is my last game selected because of how badly San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan has owned L.A. head coach Sean McVay over the years. As you read in my 6-Point NFL Week 4 Teaser handicap, I prefer the Rams as a teaser leg instead.
But, I needed a 5th-game for the contest and defaulting to the reigning Super Bowl champions isn’t the worst look. Plus San Francisco’s offense has been a mess this season. 49ers Pro Bowl LT Trent Williams is sidelined with an injury and that’s enough to push me towards L.A.
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