Videos by OutKick
Right after I opened my mouth about an NFL betting heater, I cooled off. Week 14 snapped a four-week winning streak. But, I like this NFL Week 15 card and will have a bounce-back effort in the Circa Million IV.
Week 14 Recap (2-3):
- BUCCANEERS (+3.5) at 49ers ❌
- Jets at BILLS (-9.5) ❌
- Vikings at LIONS (-2.5) ✅
- Jets at CHARGERS (+3.5) ✅
- Panther at SEAHAWKS (-4.5) ❌
My record fell to 38-29-3 after Week 14, which is tied for 796th out of 4,683 Circa Million entries. Here are the Circa Million IV lines for NFL Week 15 followed by my picks …
Circa Million IV NFL Week 15 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Jets (PK)
- Dolphins (+7)
- Cowboys (-3.5)
- Rams (+7)
- Titans (+3)
Circa Pick #1: Detroit Lions at New York Jets (Pick ’em)
Lions-Jets have ping-ponged from NY as slight home favorites to Detroit as slight road favorites all week. Even after news broke that Jets QB Mike White would miss Week 15, New York sits at -1 at the time of writing.
Regardless of who’s under center, the Jets are the right side because their defense will dominate the Lions. NY’s defense is sixth in points per game allowed. The Jets have the eighth-highest pressure rate despite blitzing at the lowest rate.
Detroit won five of the last six games and covered the spread in all six. But, the Lions have beaten up below-average to terrible defenses.
NY’s defense is as good as the Patriots who shut out the Lions 29-0 in Week 5, and the Cowboys who crushed Detroit 24-6 in Week 7.
Finally, Lions-Jets is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. Per Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Jets at the time of writing and nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Lions.
Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professionals wager a lot more money than your average Joe.
(LISTEN to Lions-Jets analysis on this week’s episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #2: Miami Dolphins (+7) at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium in Buffalo looked like a snow globe Saturday morning and the winter conditions will ground both passing attacks in Dolphins-Bills.
That said, the difference in this game will be Miami’s edge in the trenches. Per Pro Football Focus, Buffalo’s offensive line has the second-biggest disadvantage in both run blocking and pass protection.
Furthermore, more than 85% of the money in the consensus market is on the Bills as of Saturday afternoon, per Pregame.com. It doesn’t take a sharp to know that 85% of people don’t win money betting on sports.
We are buying low on the Dolphins after two straight stinkers entering Week 15. Miami lost back-to-back road games vs. the 49ers in Week 13 and the Chargers on Sunday Night Football last week.
But, NFL teams usually play better the week after being embarrassed on primetime. Most importantly, my numbers say there isn’t seven points of difference between these teams.
The Bills are fifth in net expected points added per play (EPA/play) and third in net yards per play (nYPP). Miami is eighth in net EPA/play and sixth in nYPP.
(LISTEN to Dolphins-Bills analysis on this week’s episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #3: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville feels like the fake sharp bet of the week. The look-ahead line was the Cowboys -6 and has been steamed down to -4 at most sportsbooks despite most of the action being on Dallas.
However, “sharp” money has been backing the Jaguars since they drafted QB Trevor Lawrence last season even though Jacksonville doesn’t cover a lot of spreads.
Since 2021, the Jaguars are 0-9 against the spread (ATS) vs. NFC teams with a -10.8 ATS margin, 2-4 ATS following a win, 10-15 ATS as a ‘dog, and 5-8 ATS as a ‘dog since
Finally, this should be a get-right game for Cowboys QB Dak Prescott and a bounce-back game for Dallas’s defense. Jacksonville has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and the Cowboys went sack-less last week for the first time all season.
(LISTEN to Cowboys-Jaguars analysis on this week’s episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #4: Los Angeles Rams (+7) at Green Bay Packers
I’ll break this game down in further detail Sunday night or Monday morning but why should the Packers be TD favorites over any team in the NFL?
Also, are we sure the Week 14 bye helps Green Bay? This is a throwaway year for the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. I don’t see them putting in extra film prep considering the season is over.
Simply put, these are two terrible teams but only one needs to win by more than a TD. I’ll almost always take the points in this spot and backing primetime underdogs has been profitable in 2022.
(LISTEN to Rams-Packers analysis on this week’s episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Circa Pick #5: Tennessee Titans (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Titans are the last team to make my Circa Million IV slip because they will be missing four starters in Week 15. Tennessee was pummeled 36-22 by the Jaguars at home last week because of its injuries.
LAC upset the Dolphins 23-27 as 3-point home underdogs on Sunday Night Football in Week 14. What feels off to me is the market saying Miami is six points better than Tennessee.
I get the Titans are ravaged by injury and the Chargers have a significant edge in the QB matchup. That said, this has to be a buy-low spot for Tennessee and a sell-high spot for LAC.
Tennessee is 4-0 ATS following its last four double-digit losses and LAC is 6-9 ATS following a win with a +4.5 ATS margin since 2021.
Also, the gap between Titans QB Ryan Tannehill and Chargers QB Justin Herbert is lessened because Tennessee will have success on the ground vs. LAC’s terrible run defense.
This will be a get-right game for Titans All-Pro RB Derrick Henry running against a Chargers defense that’s tied with the New York Giants for most yards per rush allowed.
Furthermore, the distance from Tannehill to Herbert isn’t as big as the distance between Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel and LAC coach Brandon Staley.
Vrabel is the only explanation for the Titans’ winning record. It’s cheesy and cliche but Tennessee’s football team took the identity of its coach. The Titans are tough, well-prepped and savvy.
Tennessee is +5.2% in net third-down conversion rate and +11.7% in net red zone scoring rate. LAC is -0.1% in net third-down conversion rate and -4.6% in net red zone scoring rate.
Finally, Tennessee made my Week 15 card because I’ve done well betting both teams this season. I’m 7-1 betting on Chargers games and 3-1 betting on Titans games in 2022.
(LISTEN to Titans-Chargers analysis on this week’s episode of OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
PointsBet Sportsbook users can make their first bets risk-free up to $2,000. If the bet loses, PointsBet will refund you in site credit. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.