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After settling on my starting 5 for the Charles Schwab Challenge 2023, one of which I added via Twitter, it’s time to round out my betting card with some tournament matchup bets.
Head-to-heads were easy money for me last season but it’s been tough going in 2022-23. I split my four tournament matchup bets at last week’s 2023 PGA Championship but cashed both Round 2 matchups.
Regardless, I’ll be firing up more head-to-head bets on the PGA Tour since the NBA season is pretty much over and we are months from the start of football.
Charles Schwab Challenge 2023 Head-to-Heads
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Hayden Buckley (-110) > Patrick Rodgers
Buckley is 27th in my Charles Schwab power rankings built using FantasyNational.com’s tools and Rodgers is 48th. Colonial Country Club is a positional course where accuracy off-the-tee (OTT) and precision with the irons are vital.
Over the last 50 rounds, Buckley is second in this field for Good Drives Gained, which blends driving distance and accuracy, and 5th in Strokes Gained (SG): Ball Striking (BS). Rodgers is 83rd in Good Drives Gained and 33rd in SG: BS.
I’d give Buckley a slight edge in recent form. Buckley finished T26 at the 2023 PGA Championship, T43 at the Wells Fargo (“elevated event”), T5 at the RBC Heritage (“elevated event”), and T10 at the Valero Open.
Rodgers was T29 at last week’s PGA Championship, missed the cut at the Wells Fargo, and T19 at the RBC Heritage. That said, Rodgers finished T10 at the Mexico Open and T5 at the Valero.
Colonial is a track and Buckley sets himself up with better birdie looks. Buckley is 7th in this field for Greens-in-Regulation (GIRs) Gained and 17th in Opportunities (Opps) Gained. Rodgers is 54th in GIRs Gained and 74th in Opps Gained.
BET: 1 unit (u) on Hayden Buckley (-110) vs. Patrick Rodgers at the Charles Schwab
Rickie Fowler (-120) > Sam Burns
While Burns is the reigning Charles Schwab champion and won the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play earlier this year, Fowler is having a much better season. Fowler is +1.433 in total SG and Burns is +0.546, per PGATour.com.
Both missed the cut at last week’s PGA Championship. But, Fowler finished T20 or better in seven of his previous eight full-field starts. Burns has missed four cuts over his last eight events and has cracked the top-15 twice during that stretch.
Over the last 50 rounds, Fowler is 9th in my key stat model at FantasyNational.com and Burns is 88th. Fowler ranks 15th or better in this field for SG: BS, SG: Approach (APP), GIRs, and Opps Gained. Burns is 101st in SG: APP and 85th in GIRs Gained.
BET: 1u on Rickie Fowler (-120) vs. Sam Burns at the Charles Schwab
Andrew Putnam (+100) > Denny McCarthy
This is one of the oldest events on the PGA Tour so course history at Colonial matters more at the Charles Schwab than most other tournaments. Putnam ranks 15th in total SG at Colonial and McCarthy is 67th.
McCarthy has lost strokes tee-to-green in his last four starts at Colonial and his highest finish over that span is T27 at the Charles Schwab. Putnam missed two cuts in his last five starts at Colonial however he finished T3 in 2019 and T15 last year.
Usually, McCarthy’s leg up on the competition is on the greens. But, Putnam is 4th in this field for SG: Putting on Bent grass greens over the last 12 rounds and McCarthy is 11th.
Finally, Putnam ranks 19th in SG: APP, 22nd in Good Drives Gained, and 16th in driving accuracy over the last 50 rounds. Whereas McCarthy is 53rd in SG: APP, 38th in Good Drives Gained, and 51st in driving accuracy.
BET: 1u on Andrew Putnam (+100) vs. Denny McCarthy at the Charles Schwab
2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Longshot
If we are being real, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+400) is probably going to win the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge. Scheffler lost in a playoff to Burns last year and is a native Texan.
But, there have been some mid-tier golfers that have won the Charles Schwab in recent years including Jason Kokrak (+5000) in 2021 and Daniel Berger (+8000) in a playoff over Collin Morikawa in 2020.
Bhatia obviously is in the “longshot tier” but he has the iron play to have a big weekend at Colonial. He is 11th in SG: APP in his rookie season on the PGA Tour and has above-average driving accuracy.
Furthermore, Bhatia recovers well from errant tee shots. Bhatia is 2nd on Tour this season in birdie-or-better percentage when playing from the rough. Colonial has 12 Par 4s and Bhatia is 8th this season on Tour in Par 4 scoring.
BET: Akshay Bhatia at the Charles Schwab
- 0.125u on Akshay Bhatia to win (+13000)
- 0.5u on Akshay Bhatia to finish top-20 (+400)
Other 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Articles
Charles Schwab Challenge 2023: Best Bets, Course And Event Preview
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.
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