The Los Angeles Chargers (5-4) have the opportunity to get back in the AFC West race when they host the first-place Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at SoFi Stadium in Week 11 for Sunday Night Football.
The Chiefs beat the Chargers 27-24 in their first meeting on Thursday Night Football in LA in Week 2. LA outplayed KC, gaining six more first downs and 82 more total yards and possessing the ball for seven minutes longer.
Not only were the Chargers the better team in their first meeting with the Chiefs but LA was only 4-point underdogs in KC. Yet the Chargers are getting +5.5 in LA this week?
That is far too much line movement. The Chargers are getting healthier on offense and this is a much better spot for LA than the Chiefs.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline (ML): Chiefs (-240), CHARGERS (+200)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs -5.5 (-110), CHARGERS +5.5 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 52 — O: -115, U: -105
Again, the Chargers were the right side when these teams met earlier this season. Justin Herbert blew it by throwing a 99-yard pick-six in KC’s endzone to go down by 7 points with 10:29 remaining.
However, I’m on the home ‘dog here because Herbert is getting a couple of weapons back this game and he’s always played well against the Chiefs in his career.
Herbert has a 66.5% completion rate with a 13/3 TD/INT ratio and a 106.3 QB Rating in five career starts vs. KC. The Chargers are 2-3 but 4-1 ATS in those contests.
Furthermore, Herbert is going to have all night to pick apart the Chief’s mediocre defense. LA’s offensive line has the second-best adjusted sack rate in the NFL, per Football Outsiders.
Also, LA is 8-3 ATS as road underdogs since Herbert’s rookie season (2020) and 4-1 ATS as primetime road ‘dogs. While the Chiefs are 13-23 ATS as favorites of -3.5 or greater over that span.
Finally, there’s reverse line movement in the betting market for this game. DraftKings is reporting via VSIN that nearly 70% of the money is on the Chiefs as of early Sunday afternoon.
But, the Chargers opened as a 6.5-point underdogs so apparently the sportsbooks are taking respected action on LA. Let’s follow the sharp money and …
BET: Chargers +5.5 (-110) and ML (+200) at DraftKings Sportsbook
(Just to be clear: Only “sprinkle” on LA’s ML, if at all, because the Chargers plus the points is the sharper play).
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