Chargers vs. Texans, 1 ET
I’ll be the first to admit that the Texans look significantly more competent than I thought they would. The Bears always seemed to be pretty solid with Lovie Smith and the organization, of course, decided to get rid of him after a 10-win season. In fairness, they never were going anywhere, but they also haven’t gone anywhere since he left.
Just because the Texans are better than I thought doesn’t mean I like them to win this game or anything. They don’t muster enough in most games offensively to put enough pressure on opponents. Their defense, a calling card of Smith, has been strong though holding three opponents to a 19.7 points per game average. The offenses they’ve faced are not nearly as good as the Chargers team they will face though. I am encouraged by Davis Mills production, he’s completing about 60% of passes and does seem like he has a solid enough connection with Brandin Cooks. I do think that Asante Samuel Jr. could take Cooks out of the game, for the most part, making it very difficult for the Texans to score.
For the Chargers, I have to believe that Herbert is still hurt. Losing in Los Angeles isn’t a big surprise or anything, but the way they lost was very bad. They are getting next to nothing out of the running game right now. In three games, they haven’t had a running back get more than 40 yards on the ground. They absolutely will need to establish the run in this game. That runs time off the clock and unless there are huge gains, the scores are typically lower. The Chargers defense was also embarrassed by the Jaguars. The Jaguars aren’t a bad team, but flying across the country and winning by 28, that’s not something that should happen. Especially not to a Chargers team that has playoff and even Super Bowl aspirations.
I think the combination of a lot of things adds up to an under in this game. We see Herbert not playing at 100%, the need to establish a running game for both teams, the Texans defense is strong, and the Chargers defense needs to rebound from a bad game. Play under 44.5 (now at 45).
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