Chances of Four Undefeateds Rises to Seven Percent

Last week our buddy Paul Bessire stopped by OKTC to shed some statistical light on the odds that Alabama, Kansas State, Oregon, and Notre Dame would all finish undefeated.

The odds were very low.

Then Notre Dame squeaked by Pitt in triple overtime, Alabama scored a touchdown with under a minute to play at LSU, Oregon outlasted USC, and Kansas State triumphed pulling away.

Suddenly the odds of a four-way undefeated mess have grown quite a bit, from around 1 percent to seven percent. Still not very good, but increasing rapidly.

What do Paul’s odds suggest? Try this.

From Paul Bessire at Prediction Machine:

As we did last week, here are the chances that each current undefeated FBS team wins all of its remaining regular season (and conference championship) games:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Games Remaining: 4 (with conference championship, though one of those games is against FCS Western Carolina)

Undefeated Chances: 78.9%

Closest Remaining Game: SEC Championship Game (December 1)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Games Remaining: 3

Undefeated Chances 51.1%

Closest Remaining Game: at USC (November 24)

Kansas State Wildcats

Games Remaining: 3

Undefeated Chances: 44.8%

Closest Remaining Game: at TCU (November 10)

Oregon Ducks

Games Remaining: 4 (including conference championship game)

Undefeated Chances: 39.4%

Closest Remaining Game: at Oregon State (November 24)

Ohio State Buckeyes

Games Remaining: 2

Undefeated Chances: 33.8%*

Closest Remaining Game: vs. Michigan (November 24)

* Assuming Denard Robinson plays for Michigan

Louisville Cardinals

Games Remaining: 3

Undefeated Chances: 23.1%

Closest Remaining Game: at Rutgers (November 29)

A few notes on the undefeated odds above:

Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 2 (after conference title games): 0.6% (or 1-in-180)

Chances Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 7.1% (or 1-in-14)

Chances Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 9.02% (or 1-in-11)

Chances Oregon is undefeated and Kansas State and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 10.6% (or 1-in-9)

Chances Notre Dame is undefeated and Kansas State and Oregon are not on December 2: 17.1% (or 1-in-6)

Chances Kansas State is undefeated and Oregon and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 13.3% (or 1-in-8)

Chances that Louisville is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 0.8% (or 1-in-125)

Chances that Alabama is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 9.9% (or 1-in-10)

Chances that no FBS team is undefeated on December 2: 1.8% (or 1-in-57)

Chances that Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State all have at least one loss on December 2: 3.5% (or 1-in-29)

…

Finally, remember all the talk last week about whether Alabama could beat Jacksonville or the Chiefs?

Well, Paul provides a definitive breakdown on the question by computer simulating the two teams 50,000 times.

The result?

Go read about it for yourself.