Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
The St. Louis Cardinals (9-13) begin a 4-game series with the San Francisco Giants (8-13) Monday at Oracle Park and both teams are off to rough starts in 2023.
St. Louis is 4-6 overall in the last 10 games and have lost back-to-back series. San Francisco is 3-7 in the last 10 but won two straight vs. the New York Mets this weekend to split their 4-game series.
The Cardinals (-125 moneyline) give LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.84 ERA) the start for the series opener Monday and the Giants (+105 ML) counter with RHP Alex Cobb (0-1, 2.79 ERA).
Cardinals At Giants Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET.
- Ball park: Oracle Park in San Francisco, California.
The basic numbers are disappointing but Montgomery’s pitching peripherals suggest he’ll come around. Montgomery has a 2.88 FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) and a .333 BABIP.
FIP is more predictive than ERA and BABIP is a luck-based metric. I.e. Montgomery has solid plate command but the balls hit in play are just finding holes.
San Francisco is 2-9 overall as home underdogs vs. left-handed starters since last season. The Giants are losing 5.6-2.6 on average in those games and has a -54.6% return on investment.
Also, San Francisco’s lineup cannot hit lefties. The Giants rank 28th in both wRC+ (68) and wOBA (.271), 22nd in ISO (.123), 29th in BB/K rate (0.19), and 24th in hard-hit rate (27.8%), per FanGraphs.
More importantly, St. Louis’s bullpen is much better than San Francisco’s. The Cardinals’ relievers are better by K-BB% (19.9-16.0%), FIP (4.38-3.05), HR/9 rate (1.40-0.69), and WAR (1.2-0.0).
The public is mostly split on this Cardinals-Giants game in the consensus betting market, according to Pregame.com. But, two-thirds of the money is on St. Louis’s ML, which indicates the Cardinals are the sharp side Monday.
BET: St. Louis (-125) ML at DraftKings, up to -135
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