Geoff Clark
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The Philadelphia Phillies (1-0) hope to eliminate the St. Louis Cardinals (0-1) in Game 2 of their best-of-three National League Wild Card Series at Busch Stadium Saturday.
St. Louis jumped ahead with a 7th-inning pinch-hit 2-run blast from Cardinals OF Juan Yepez Saturday. Then Philly pulled off a stunning 6-run rally in the top of the 9th to steal Game 1, 6-3.
Phillies starting RHP Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) takes the ball while Cardinals RHP Miles Mikolas (12-13, 3.29 ERA) tries to extend the series to a decisive Game 3.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies (-120), CARDINALS (+100)
- Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+150), Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
- Total (O/U) — 6.5 — O: -115, U: -105
BET: Cardinals’ ML (+100), down to -120
Nola was brilliant in Philly’s playoff-clinching win at the Houston Astros Oct. 3 but Nola has struggled vs. tough competition otherwise this season.
The Phillies are 5-13 when Nola starts against teams with a winning record. Philly is 4-8 (1-4 on the road) as favorites when Nola faces winning teams.
Mikolas’ numbers improve vs. winning teams on the other hand. His ERA (4.04-2.49), WHIP (1.13-0.93), K/BB rate (4.28-3.62) and opposing OPS (.686-.590) are all better against teams above-.500 compared to losing teams.
Also, Mikolas is lights out at home. He is 6-3 in 14 home starts this season with a 2.38 ERA (4.10 road ERA), 0.84 WHIP (1.21 road WHIP) and 4.60 K/BB rate (3.50 road K/BB rate). STL is 3-2 with a +20.9% return on investment (ROI) in Mikolas’ home starts vs. teams with a winning record.
Philly is 2-4 when Nola starts against the Cardinals in STL with a -30.1% ROI over his career. This includes a Cardinals’ 6-1 victory over Nola and the Phillies on July 11. Oh, STL’s starter for that game was Mikolas.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (+100), down to -120.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
