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Reds vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET
Finally, after a week of unfortunate results, we have back-to-back winning days. The run I was on of something like 23-6 seems to have shifted over to my peer Geoff Clark who has been on fire this week. Between the two of us, we should be singlehandedly saving you from the continuously rising inflation of life. Just kidding, even our success can’t keep pace with that.
The Reds haven’t had anything to play for in roughly… well, all season. They have already been eliminated from the playoffs, but in reality, they were eliminated when they allowed their best players to walk or be traded away. They now are starting journeymen like Chase Anderson in hopes of remaining competitive. Anderson has three starts on the year for the Reds and four total appearances. In that time, he has only been able to cover nine innings and he has allowed nine earned runs. 2.1 of those innings have come against the Cardinals and he’s allowed seven earned runs to them in those innings. He has given up two home runs and five hits. This is all to say the Cardinals are doing really well against him. Still, his last 6.2 innings have seen him only give up two earned runs, so maybe he is making a little bit of an improvement.
Miles Mikolas and his Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde season has continued as we see drastic splits between his home and road starts. At home, he now has a 2.23 ERA. Mikolas has struggled a bit against the Reds. He has allowed 11 earned runs over 16.1 innings. You’ll never guess how many runs he has allowed on the road in comparison to home runs allowed. I’ll tell you: in two road starts against the Reds he has allowed 10 earned runs. In one home start, he allowed just one earned run over seven innings. Over his last five home starts, he has allowed seven earned runs over 36.2 innings. He’s allowed more than that in his last two road starts. My message here is simple: back him at home, fade him on the road.
I will take a couple of different angles on this one. I’ll take Miles Mikolas to record a win at +105 and I’ll also grab the Cardinals -1.5 at -125. That might be the highest juice I’ve ever paid on a run line this season, but I have no faith in the Reds against a home-starting Mikolas.
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