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The NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals (87-61) head to Petco Park Tuesday to start a 3-game set against the current NL wild card San Diego Padres (81-66). The Cardinals swept the Padres in a 3-game series in STL by a combined score of 14-7 earlier this season.
Let’s BET the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook to make it four consecutive wins vs. the Padres (-115) Tuesday. For the record, I’d take the Cardinals moneyline (ML) all the way up to -125.
Cardinals’ ‘Waino’ Is Battle-Tested
Cardinals are starting RHP Adam Wainwright (11-9, 3.29 ERA) aka Waino, aka Uncle Charlie because of his legendary 12-6 curveball.
Wainwright has a borderline Hall of Fame resume as a World Series champion, 3-time All-Star and probable 200+ game-winner.
Over the last three seasons, the Cardinals are 18-12 straight up (SU) vs. teams above-.500 with Wainwright on the mound. They have a +27.4% return on investment (ROI) and a +1.10 margin of victory (5.13-4.03). On the road in those spots, STL is 8-5 SU with a +42.4% ROI.
Clevinger Struggles Vs. Good Teams
Padres send out RHP Mike Clevinger (5-7, 4.47 ERA) Tuesday and Clevinger is having a down season after spending most of the last three years injured. His FIP (“Fielding Independent Pitching”) is higher than his ERA (5.04). A higher FIP than ERA typically means the pitcher is due for regression.
Also, Clevinger bullies bad teams but gets nuked by good ball clubs. For his career, Clevinger has a 35.7% winning rate vs. teams above-.500 (76.% winning rate vs. losing teams) with a 5.10 ERA (2.61 ERA vs. losing teams).
This season, Clevinger is 1-5 SU vs. winning teams with a 6.33 ERA and a .214 BAbip. Clevinger has allowed double the home runs (HR) vs. winning teams (12-6 HRs) in 13 and 1/3 fewer innings pitched. Again, this is despite Clevinger’s super-lucky .214 BAbip vs. winning teams.
Trends & ’Sharps’ Favor St. Louis
Sharp action has taken the Cardinals from +115 on the opener up through zero and at the current number, according to Pregame.com.
This probably happened because the Padres are just 1-6 SU as home favorites of -125 or less with a -4.71 margin of victory (6.57-1.86) and -73.8% ROI.
Get over to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-105).
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