Can’t Pass Up This Juicy Underdog

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Rockies vs. Dodgers, 4:10 ET

I opened up yesterday’s article talking about how there was no reason that the Dodgers should be favored by as much as they were over the Rockies. I understand that the Dodgers are a significantly better team than the Rockies. I also am well aware of how bad the Rockies are on the road, but the lines for these games are off. We are going to take advantage of the opportunity today as the Dodgers and Rockies close out a series.

The Rockies are a very bad team on the road. If they are at home, they still are a bad team, but at least reasonably close to the .500 mark. They have 22 more losses than wins on the road this season, and this is a trend that has taken place for at least the past two or three years. They’ve lost four games in a row and that includes the past three against the Dodgers. How many runs do they have this series? Three. All games have seen the Rockies score exactly one run. So, clearly, the offense is not thriving right now. Normally I would attribute this to the Dodgers pitching staff, but they haven’t been that good this season. The Dodgers on the other hand are crushing the league once again. They looked a bit rocky out of the gate and they were not even leading the division at the All-Star Break. As for now, they have a large lead and have essentially locked of the NL West. They are on a seven-game winning streak and looking for more here as they close out the series against the Rockies.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 15: Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets ready to pitch during the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on August 15, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

In order to get a good idea on how to play this, we really need to take a look at the starters for today’s matchup. The game is between Kyle Freeland and Julio Urias. Just based on name value, this would be a good matchup. Freeland is having basically the same year that he normally does. He has a 4.84 ERA overall, and is back to pitching slightly better at Coors Field than he does on the road. He has been better in day starts which could help him in this one as they play under the California sun. Freeland faced the Dodgers once this season and allowed six earned runs over five innings, and that game came when the Dodgers weren’t playing as consistent as they are now. Urias was a 20-game winner two years ago. Last year, he led the league in ERA with a 2.16 finish. This year? He’s got a 4.39 ERA and has already allowed more earned runs in his 17 starts than he did all of last season (31 starts). He is a free agent at the end of the year, so it would be in his best interest to prove he hasn’t lost anything if he wants a big contract, and at just 27 years of age, he should get one.

Here is what the books are offering this game at: Dodgers -340. Rockies are +270. I really don’t think that the pitching matchup warrants numbers like this. I said the same thing about yesterday’s game and the final was Dodgers 4, Rockies 1. I feel it again here, this is too much value to pass up. I’m going to take the Rockies, but through five innings. I think both pitchers will allow runs, but I think the Rockies are getting too much value. They also are +170 and getting +0.5 runs, which is the way I’ll play it through five because if it is tied, we get a win instead of a push. If they are losing, we would lose either way.

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Written by David Troy

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