Burnes, Kelly Have Edge Over Hitters

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Brewers vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

Sometimes you get lucky in some of these games. I was really thinking the Mariners were going to beat the Cubs yesterday. They ended up losing the game, but we still won my bet. I took the Cubs to score under 3.5 runs in the game and ultimately, it went into the 10th inning with a 2-2 game before they walked it off. Now we go to another game that I’m expecting a low score in.

The Brewers are off to a nice start with a 7-3 record for the year and they are continuing to be strengthened by their pitching staff. I have been expecting their pitching to fall off a cliff for a year or two at this point, and it just hasn’t happened. Oddly enough, the one guy you’d expect to be leading their team, is off to a bad start. That guy is former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Burnes has turned in two starts on the year and hasn’t looked particularly good in any of them. He has allowed 10 earned runs this season over 9.1 innings. He also has allowed five walks which seems like it is part of the issue that is plaguing Burnes right now. He has had some solid success against Arizona hitters in the past with just nine hits allowed in 45 at-bats against him. This could be a good chance for him to get back on track.

The Diamondbacks are off to a hot start as well with a 7-4 record and they certainly have not had an easy schedule to begin the year. They’ve had to face the Dodgers in eight games already and now take on the Brewers. Just because I don’t believe in Milwaukee doesn’t mean they are a bad team. Still, the Diamondbacks are responding admirably to a tough beginning of the season. They are also relying on their pitching staff. Merrill Kelly is one of the guys that I really like on their staff and he is combatting Burnes today. On the season, Kelly has not gone particularly deep into games, not completing six innings yet. In his last start he allowed four earned runs to the Diamondbacks over 5.2 innings. He continues to issue far too many free passes as well. He has allowed eight walks in 9.1 innings. If he can get the control under… control, he should be able to keep the runs off the board. Milwaukee is just 15-for-69 against him in their careers.

The over 8.5 is juiced right now. Call me nuts, but I’m taking the under. Neither pitcher looks great, but Kelly had to face the Dodgers twice, and Burnes had to face the Mets and Cubs. I’d say Burnes is a bit more concerning than Kelly, but I think he should be able to keep the Diamondbacks bats at-bay in this one. I’m going to take under 8.5 in this game.

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Written by David Troy

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