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In Game 1, Trae Young went ballistic and scored 48 points. Game 2 was a story that many probably expected with the Bucks absolutely dominating and winning with ease. Now we are back to even in the series. What can we expect in Game 3, and what plays can we make to cash our tickets?
I’m going to focus on the first half of this game to start. The Hawks at home have won games, but they haven’t started all that well. In two of the three games against Philadelphia, they went to the locker room at the first half trailing by more than the spread today, Bucks -2.5. I expect the Bucks to keep the pressure on and push the issue by trying to build a big lead. Frankly, I feel like, by halftime of the last game, both teams decided they were just going to phone it in and play for Game 3. Play the Bucks to cover the first-half spread.
Sticking with the Bucks and the first half for a second here, I see their team total for the first half is 56.5. In the first two games of the series, they’ve had 59 points and 77. The juice is going towards the under for them, but I am not really sure why. Maybe it is because they had some really poor outings in Brooklyn as a road team. Philly was able to eclipse 56.5 in two of their three trips to Atlanta last series. I’m going to play the Bucks to get over 56.5 points in the first half.
I like Kevin Huerter to get over 12 points tonight. He has a total of 12.5. He scored 13 in Game 1, and only eight in shorter minutes of Game 2. Quite simply, he needs to shoot better from deep for this to happen. He is just 28.4% from three so far in the series, whereas he was 36% against Philly, and 45% against the Knicks. Eventually that average will improve to his more normal 35-or-so% that we should be used to from him. Take it to happen tonight over 12.5.
One last long shot to take… Trae Young took a lot of blame on himself for Game 2. I expect him to do everything he can to get his team involved and stay in the game. You know he will get 10+ points, he is likely to get 10+ assists, but his rebounds… never hit 10 all season. He’s 70-1 to get a triple-double tonight. This is a complete shot in the dark, but I’m going to play it for a quarter or half a unit and see what happens here. I wouldn’t be shocked at all, and a much safer play for a triple-double is Giannis at +650, so do what you choose with that information.