The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) host the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) on Sunday Night Football in Week 4 at Raymond James Stadium.
An injury-depleted Bucs were beaten 14-12 in Tampa last week by the Green Bay Packers as 1-point home favorites. Tampa’s defense is pacing the team, leading the NFL by heads and shoulders in expected points added per play (EPA/play).
The Chiefs were upset 20-17 as 7.5-point road favorites at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. K.C.’s offense fell flat vs. Indy, converting only half of its red zone attempts and gaining just 58 rushing yards on 23 carries.
We’re rolling with the Bucs because betting against Tom Brady at home is lunacy and Tampa’s defense will overwhelm K.C.’s offense.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline (ML): Chiefs (+100), BUCCANEERS (-120)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs +1.5 (-110), Buccaneers -1.5 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 46 — O: -110, U: -110
Bet Buccaneers (-120) ML, all the way up to -135
Has been anything more profitable in sports than backing Tom Brady in a big, primetime game? When waking up Sunday morning, you can just feel it: “Tom Brady is going to win this game.”
Apparently, the public disagrees. According to VSIN, roughly two-thirds of the bets placed are on K.C.’s ML at the time of publishing. In my opinion, this just strengthens our TB ML position.
The only thing better than betting Brady in a big game is fading the public by backing Brady in a big game. A majority of the public backed the Chiefs when the Bucs blasted them 31-9 in Super Bowl LV.
Also, Tampa has its entire WR corp healthy and active for this Sunday Night Football matchup. Whereas K.C. has a new WR room that’s pretty blah at the moment. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is doing his part but K.C.’s wide receivers aren’t pulling their weight.
Bucs LB Lavonte David is the best linebacker in pass coverage, per PFF. David will have the help of the NFL’s best secondary behind him. Tampa has 3 safeties graded 11th or better at their position per Pro Football Focus (PFF), including S Mike Edwards who’s the highest-graded safety in the NFL.
By the eye-ball test, this Chiefs offense is significantly worse without WR Tyreek Hill. Sure, K.C. lit up the Arizona Cardinals for 44 points in Week 1. But, Arizona’s defense is nothing to write home about.
The Bucs have the personnel to make the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional and Tampa’s defense will be the difference in this game.
BET the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-120) ML at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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