Brewers Can Bash Braves Starter

Braves vs. Brewers, 8:10 ET

I played a game between the Diamondbacks and the Braves yesterday. The starting pitchers were Zac Gallen and Spencer Strider. In my analysis, I wrote up how this would be a high-scoring game and to take the over. Only, I said to do it for the first five innings because of the starting pitching being in a suboptimal position. The game ended with 12 runs scored. Exactly zero of them were scored in the first five innings. That was not a fun way to go. I'll try and get that money back with a bet between the Braves and Brewers.

The Braves are arguably the best team in baseball. They've got just about everything you could want out of a squad - hitting, pitching, fielding, a solid bullpen - you name it, they have it. They are sitting almost 30 games above .500, but the crazy part is they are missing their best pitcher, so they still have room for improvement. I am interested to see if they tinker with their roster at all before the deadline is over. I would guess it will be small tweaks if anything. Today they are sending out Michael Soroka to the mound. This is just his sixth appearance of the season (fifth start) and he only has one quality start on the season. His most recent outing (the only relief appearance) he only threw 30 pitches, and was pulled after three innings and two earned runs allowed. There have only been two hitters on the Brewers roster that have faced Soroka but both have gotten at least one hit off of the right-hander.

No doubt the Braves are the better team, but the Brewers have the edge today. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

The Brewers are making their move. It took the better part of a season, but they are finally starting to pull away in the Central Division. They've won four of their past five games and now have a 2.5-game lead over the second-place Reds. That isn't significant enough to crown them, but at least someone is finally starting to put a bit of distance behind them. The Brewers are not the type of team to really make a splash at the deadline - I think the last time they made a trade like that was when they traded for C.C. Sabathia years ago. They are going to continue to rely on who they have. One of the guys they have right now is Freddy Peralta. Peralta comes into the game with a respectable 4.41 ERA and a home ERA of 3.88. He had one of his best outings of the year in his last game going six innings and allowing just one hit. Essentially, you should expect him to go five innings and allow two or three earned runs in a game. He's got a good track record against Braves hitters, too.

I'm going to take the Brewers to win this game. I really don't trust Soroka, and the Braves aren't playing the best baseball of their season. Peralta has been solid enough and reliable for the Brewers so I like the chances of them winning this game and think we are getting a bit of value at +105. I don't like fading the Braves, but this is a decent spot to do it in.

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