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Brewers vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET
I had a play on the Brewers a few days ago when they faced the Royals. I told you to play their run line and then also leaned towards the under, but also said to sprinkle the Brewers over 4.5 on their team total, and the Royals under 3.5 for their team total. The final of that game was 5-1. Today, the Brewers look to push their winning streak against the Cardinals winning streak.
The Brewers are starting to once again distance themselves from the .500 mark and want to make a claim for the first spot in the division. They were able to sweep the Royals last week, a team they need to beat. Prior to that, they lost six straight against the Rockies and Giants before losing two of three to the Dodgers. It wasn’t a great stretch for them, obviously. They are still 5-2 over their past seven games, so everything in perspective I suppose. They send Freddy Peralta out today to take on the Cardinals. He’s been pretty solid this season and has posted three consecutive quality starts. He did start against the Cardinals earlier this season and was able to go six innings and allowed just one run on four hits. Cardinals hitters have been pretty successful against the Brewers starter in the past though.
It is about time the Cardinals showed some signs of life. They are currently on a three-game winning streak and have won six of their past seven contests. Before this stretch, though, they lost 11 of 12 games. They are still nine games under .500, but before those two three-game winning streaks, they had not won more than two games in a row since mid-April. They are sending Jack Flaherty to the bump today. He has been a mixed bag this season. He’s only posted one quality start this year, but he does have four starts of five innings with three or fewer runs allowed. Flaherty has allowed a home run in six straight games as well. In just 39.1 innings, he has allowed 27 walks and 41 hits, so he isn’t missing many bats right now. Brewers hitters have had some success against him in the past.
I think the Brewers probably win this game, but at the same price, I’ll avoid the bullpens and just take Milwaukee at -120 through five innings. Flaherty is almost certainly going to allow runs and I wouldn’t be surprised if Peralta gives something up, but Flaherty has been much less consistent. I’ll back the Brewers through five innings.
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