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Breaking Down MLB Futures

It hardly feels like it, but MLB is actually kicking off this week. That means we’re approaching our final opportunity to get futures bets in on the season. Via FOX Bet, here is where things stand now as far as odds are concerned:

My thoughts, in no particular order:

1) As I wrote earlier, I believe this season is ripe for shorting the favorites, the Yankees and Dodgers.

This season is going to be a 60-game sprint. If that’s not enough variance for you, the coronavirus throws a whole other wrench into operations. Not only could players be lost to quarantine if they test positive, there are some regions (such as Los Angeles) that mandate a 14-day quarantine for anybody who comes into close contact with someone else who tests positive. In an extreme scenario, there’s what happened in the MLS with two entire teams dropped out of the return to play.

The bottom line: While the Yankees or Dodgers could still win the World Series, this is an environment with high variance where I’m shying away from favorites and trending towards mid-tier candidates.

2) The White Sox have greatly appreciated since May, while the Brewers have fallen off.

On May 15th, I said I liked the Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, and White Sox. At that point, the Cardinals were 20-1, the Brewers were 30-1, the Rays were 20-1, and the White Sox were 50-1. The Cardinals and Rays have moved slightly since then while the White Sox and Brewers have varied widely. The White Sox are all the way up to 30-1 while the Brewers are down to 40-1.

The White Sox had a great offseason, adding Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, and Edwin Encarnacion to a solid young core of Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Tim Anderson. They also have Luis Robert, who is the favorite in AL Rookie of the Year at +400, and has an absolutely gorgeous swing:

I actually still like the White Sox at 30-1, and still have good feelings about putting a few bucks on the Brewers, Rays, and Cardinals.

3) Here are the futures for Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP in the American League and National League:

 

 

 

Written by Ryan Glasspiegel

Ryan Glasspiegel grew up in Connecticut, graduated from University of Wisconsin-Madison, and lives in Chicago. Before OutKick, he wrote for Sports Illustrated and The Big Lead. He enjoys expensive bourbon and cheap beer.

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