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The slumping Green Bay Packers (3-4) head to Highmark Stadium in Week 8 to play the Buffalo Bills (5-1) on Sunday Night Football with the kickoff scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET.
I’m going to provide a ton of analysis for a pretty simple bet: UNDER GREEN BAY PACKERS 17.5-POINT TEAM TOTAL (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Bills bully bad teams
Buffalo’s defense is allowing just 10.5 points per game in the 12 games the Bills have been at least 7.5-point favorites. Bills’ opponents have scored more than 17 points only once.
Furthermore, I have a theory Buffalo’s defense competes with the offense. Bills QB Josh Allen is an MVP favorite and gets all the love in the media.
The Bills’ high-powered offense is all over everyone’s radar. But, Buffalo is the best defense in the NFL because head coach Sean McDermott is a defensive mastermind.
McDermott has been underrated forever. Buffalo’s heart-breaking playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs will motivate McDermott for redemption.
The Bills addressed the weakness that ended their season last year by signing Von Miller in the offseason. Von is a future Hall of Famer and Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) 6th-highest graded edge rusher.
More importantly, Buffalo’s defense has talent at every other level. The Bills have two Pro Bowl-caliber linebackers and three Pro Bowl-caliber defensive backs with All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White returning from injury in a couple of weeks.
‘Styles make fights’
Green Bay’s offense plays at the 3rd-slowest neutral-situation pace, per Football Outsiders. Also, the Packers have the 5th-worst run blocking mismatch vs. the Bills in Week 8, according to PFF.
My read is Green Bay will slow down the tempo and try to establish the run. Buffalo will shut down the Packers’ rush attack and force them into converting 3rd-and-longs.
Then Von Miller and Co. will pin their ears back and will make life difficult for Aaron Rodgers. And Buffalo might not need to sack Rodgers because Green Bay is just 25th in 3rd-down conversion rate.
The Bills are my No. 1 power-rated team based on talent, coaching, and continuity. But, there’s also a solid chance Buffalo rolls teams during the regular season to try and get the 1-seed in the AFC playoffs.
The Chiefs look like they’ll be in the thick of the hunt for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs so the Bills need wins where they can get them.
Buffalo is a tough place for visitors to play and the Bills like to house bad teams in front of their home fans. If the Bills want to end their Super Bowl drought in front of their home fans, Buffalo will need to beat up on bad teams like Green Bay.
BET: Green Bay Packers UNDER 17.5 points (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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