This is a buy-low spot for the Buffalo Bills (8-3) visiting the New England Patriots (6-5) at Gillette Stadium for Thursday Night Football. Buffalo is only a 4-point favorite currently over New England.
Compare Bills-Patriots to other Buffalo games and ask yourself, “Does this line make sense?” The Bills were -2 on opening night at the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams.
They were 4-point road favorites at the current AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins in Week 2. Buffalo laid -4 at the Baltimore Ravens the following week.
The Bills were 2.5-point favorites at the AFC-leading Kansas City Chiefs two weeks later. Buffalo is 3-1 straight up (SU) and 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. those teams.
New England isn’t on the same level as a healthy Rams team, Miami, Baltimore, or K.C. Those teams have elite QBs and the Patriots don’t.
Buffalo dominates the QB battle
Patriots QB Mac Jones played his ass off in New England’s 33-26 loss at the Minnesota Vikings Thanksgiving night. But, Jones sucked against Buffalo last season.
Jones went 1-1 SU and ATS in the regular season and completed just 45.7% of his passes for 164 yards with a 0/2 TD/INT ratio vs. the Bills. I’m throwing out Jones’ playoff performance against Buffalo in 2021 since the Bills won by 30 (47-17).
Furthermore, Buffalo’s defense is getting healthier and New England’s offensive line is banged-up. The Bills will be without pass rusher Von Miller who left last week with a knee injury.
Otherwise, Buffalo All-Pro CB Tre White will make his second start of the season, and Bills pass rushers Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa were full participants in practice Tuesday.
Conversely, Buffalo is a few Josh Allen red zone turnovers away from being undefeated. Despite injury concerns and weird errors, Allen is still the third-highest-graded QB by Pro Football Focus.
Allen is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS in island games (primetime or Thursday). He’s 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on Thursday with a +11.9 ATS margin.
Also, Patriots coach Bill Belichick feasts on bad QBs but not Allen. Aside from that windy Bills-Patriots Week 13 game Buffalo lost 14-10, Allen torched New England in 2021.
He completed 70.8% of his passes for 622 yards with a 8/0 TD/INT ratio in Week 16 and the AFC wild-card round vs. the Patriots. The fact of the matter is …
New England beats who its supposed to beat and loses to good teams
The Patriots are more a straightforward team to bet post-Tom Brady than the public realizes. Since 2020, New England is 17-9 SU and 14-11-1 ATS as a favorite but 6-13 SU and 9-10 ATS as an a ‘dog.
Look at the stiff the Patriots have wins over this season. New England beat Jets QB Zach Wilson twice, Browns backup QB Jacoby Brissett, Steelers backup QB Mitch Trubisky, Colts back QB Sam Ehlinger, and Lions QB Jared Goff.
Wilson was benched in Week 12 for backup QB Mike White, Trubisky lost his job to rookie QB Kenny Pickett, Brissett will be sent back to the bench this week for Deshaun Watson, Indy’s coach got fired after starting Ehlinger and Belichick owns Goff.
Again, Belichick preys on bad QBs, which Allen isn’t. The Patriots’ defense has the second-best pressure rate in the NFL but the Bills’ offensive line has the fourth-best pressure rate allowed.
Buffalo will keep Allen upright and he’ll pick apart New England’s overrated secondary just like last year. The Patriots had no answer for the Justin Jefferson-Kirk Cousins combo last week and the Stefon Diggs-Allen duo is better.
Finally, there’s been far too much line movement off of the sportsbooks’ original number. Bills opened as 5.5-point favorites and a bunch of fake sharp money has flooded in on the Patriots. Let’s start the buy-back and …
BET: Bills -4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -6
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