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Now that we’ve reached the week of the big bowl games, here we go with the Outkick gambling picks for the playoff and the big six games.
We’ve started off 2-1 in our early bowl game gambling picks — there are three today — which runs the Outkick gambling picks to 83-87 on the season so far. That’s a 49% winning percentage. My hope is that we can finish out the year strong and finish above .500 for the year.
We’ve got eight picks for you below.
As always these lines are courtesy of BetOnline, which release the first college football lines every week during the regular season.
And, remember, you can get 20% off all Outkick gear if you spend $50 or more by using the code “boobs.” Yes, it’s our special Christmas special because I love all of you.
Here we go with 8-0!
USC +7.5 vs. Ohio State
When in doubt, take the better quarterback with over a touchdown in the point spread.
J.T. Barrett’s 48 year college football career finally comes to a close in this game and it’s likely so does Sam Darnold’s meteor shooting across the sky college football career too.
USC played to the level of its opponent in virtually every game all year, with the exception of at Notre Dame when they were dominated. Meanwhile Ohio State has been an enigma all year, at times capable of looking like the best team in the country, at other times giving up 55 points on the road against Iowa.
So whatever you bet here is a roll of the dice, but I’m taking the Trojans because I think Sam Darnold shows up as a star in his final college game.
Penn State -2 vs. Washington
Change two plays and Penn State finishes the Big Ten season 12-0. I genuinely believe the Nittany Lions are the most overlooked team in college football this year. They wilted down the stretch against Ohio State and got caught up in a messy four hour weather delay against Michigan State that seems to have killed their momentum. As a result they lost by one point on the road at Ohio State and three points on the road at Michigan State on a field goal made on the final play of the game.
I give all of that as a prelude for this reason — I think Penn State’s really good, particularly on offense. Granted, Jim Moorhead isn’t coaching in the bowl game, but I still think the Nittany Lion offense will play well.
What’s more, I’m still not sold on Washington, which hasn’t played that many good teams all year long.
So give me Penn State with the win here.
Wisconsin -6 vs. Miami
The Hurricanes wilted down the stretch, losing their final two games of the season and looking bad in both. I think that wilting continues against Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl.
In fact, I think Wisconsin bludgeons Miami in this game, pounding them with one off tackle play after another until the Hurricanes relent.
This game won’t be fun to watch, but the most shocking part by far will be that Wisconsin will have more fans in the stands than Miami will, despite the game being played in Miami.
Badgers by 10.
South Carolina-Michigan, the under 43
Neither team has a consistent offense, which means we’re going to see an ugly, boring, plodding game featuring little offensive explosion.
In fact, don’t worry about watching this game at all, just bet the under and cash your check come the end of this one.
But, remember, if Jim Harbaugh wins this game it’s because he’s the greatest coach in college football history.
LSU – Notre Dame, the over 51.5
Notre Dame has not won a New Year’s Day bowl game since 1994.
But Notre Dame did upset LSU a couple of years ago in the Music City Bowl and I don’t have a great deal of faith betting on Ed Orgeron’s coaching staff in this new year’s day tilt.
Which is why I’m very comfortable betting on the over here.
I think both teams score 24 or more and both teams scoring 30 wouldn’t surprise me at all, boom you hit the over with ease.
Georgia -2 vs. Oklahoma
Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in the playoff and, honestly, there’s a big drop off after him. And that’s why I’m nervous about betting against him in the playoff. Especially since I might be the only member of the college football media who likes Mayfield more after he grabbed his dick in the direction of the Kansas sideline. That’s my QB1!
But other than one week at Auburn the Georgia defense has been lights out this year and is presently ranked number four in the country. Oklahoma’s defense? 57th. Now the Georgia defense has been susceptible to big pass plays so that should give Sooner fans some hope, but ultimately I think Georgia is too physical for Oklahoma and will lose this one late.
Now, to be fairk Sooner fans can point to the total defense stats as being rigged because their offense plays at a high rate of play and so they play more snaps, resulting in more possessions and more points scored. Okay, well, let’s look at yards per play then.
Oklahoma allows 5.66 yards per play. Alabama gives up 4.04 yards per play, Clemson gives up 4.29 and Georgia gives up 4.45. That Oklahoma defense is a substantial outlier compared to the other three teams in the playoff. Now Oklahoma fans can argue their offense is an outlier here, tops in the nation, but I’ve just seen too many title game match ups between top Big 12 offenses and top SEC defenses. And you know who always wins those?
The SEC defenses, especially with a month to prepare.
Dawgs on top, by a touchdown or more.
Bama -3 vs. Clemson, and the under 47
The question I keep coming back to again and again on this game is this one — is Nick Saban ready to give up the greatest college football coach alive throne to Dabo Swinney? And I just can’t see it happening yet. Honestly, that’s where I’m at on this game — I just don’t see Saban losing this game with a month to prepare for Kelly Bryant.
The defensive gameplan for both of these teams is going to be very similar — both teams are going to stack the line of scrimmage and dare the quarterback to beat them. And I think Jalen Hurts, as bad as he has been down the stretch of this season, is going to have to do less to win than Kelly Bryant is.
Plus, Hurts only has thrown one interception all season while Bryant has six. In a game this close, an interception can make the difference.
What’s more, we’re talking about a match up of the number two and six defenses in college football, I just don’t see any points being scored early in this game and I ultimately think the Tide strangles the Clemson offense and Bama wins this game late pulling away 24-14.
Which will set up an all SEC title game in Atlanta.
Which will drive the college football media insane. An all SEC title game in the heartbeat of the SEC? Look out, should be a fun weekend for Outkick.
There you go kids, 8-0 coming, get rich!