Who Is Goin' To Disney After The Super Bowl?

49ers vs. Chiefs, 6:30 ET

Pretty much everything has been broken down to this point between me, Geoff Clark, and other Outkick writers, but I have one last prop that we need to dissect. There is so much hoopla over the Super Bowl, and so many bets to evaluate, it can be hard to leave no stone unturned but now that we are at the final day, the day of the actual game, we need to focus on one last area. That is the Super Bowl MVP. First, you need to get who will win, second you need to get the right person. Let's take a look at who we should bet for the Super Bowl MVP. 

We are going to break down the candidates by team and then I will give you my choices. 

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is the obvious choice for MVP in this game. He already has two trophies on his mantle and can put a third up there with another solid performance. How does Mahomes get the award? He basically just has to do what he normally does - control the game, find someone in the endzone a few times and make sure he doesn't turn the ball over. The Chiefs have to win for this to happen, but this is an obvious candidate if the Chiefs win. He is currently at +125 to win. 

Travis Kelce is a secondary option for the trophy, but in order for him to win, Mahomes has to probably throw him two touchdowns and maybe have an interception. It would fit the narrative to get even more Taylor Swift exposure. He's been their best receiver in the past two playoff games, but I think you still would give the award to Mahomes over him. At +1200 it is a longshot but I suppose it is possible and there is a path. The same could be said about Rashee Rice. Rice is +5000 but he would need to either get 100 yards and a touchdown, or make some spectacular game saving/winning catch and have a great game before that in order to get the award. Even still, Mahomes might be the better choice even if Rice has an outstanding game. 

Isiah Pacheco is the last person on the Chiefs I would consider for this award. He has been great the majority of the year for the Chiefs and he has a legitimate shot to win this award. He is the primary ball carrier for the Chiefs and should get plenty of opportunities against a 49ers team that struggles against certain runs. So, how does Pacheco get this award? If he scores all of the touchdowns, which is possible, he will win the award. If he racks up 100 yards and one touchdown, he could win the award. That also depends on how well Mahomes performs, but Pacheco has a legitimate shot and he is at +2500. 

Christian McCaffrey plans on playing Sunday. (Credit: Getty Images)

49ers

Brock Purdy is the other obvious candidate as we get so many quarterbacks winning the award. What shocks me a bit about this one is that he is at just +235 to win the award, but the 49ers are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. That indicates to me they think it will either be defense or their running back. Purdy could win this with a couple of touchdowns, a 49ers victory, and maybe 250 passing yards. That seems like the odds are against him so I really don't like the value though. 

Christian McCaffrey has some good value on the board right now. At +450, McCaffrey is an option to win this award since he is so involved in the offense. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, he will get a ton of handoffs, and he is a logical choice to score a touchdown. If McCaffrey gets 75 rushing yards, 30 receiving and a touchdown, I think he wins the award barring Purdy having an outstanding game. This could be a low scoring game, and he is so dominant in many ways. If San Francisco wins, I think he will be the winner and probably should be the second favorite behind Mahomes.

Deebo Samuel is the only other choice I think that makes sense on the 49ers. He is involved in the run game and passing game. If he were to score a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown, he can win the award. He is a bit banged up, and didn't look great against the Lions, but he is a good enough player that I think he at least has a realistic chance to be the MVP. Still, his production is dependent on Purdy and I think voters tend to favor the quarterback due to the importance and overall impact. 

If I were to bet any defensive players it would be the two obvious candidates - Chris Jones and Nick Bosa. Both would need to have ridiculous games - sacks and fumbles/fumble recoveries. Both will probably be double-teamed so they won't have an easy path to the award. 

Here is my recommendation: Take two units or a unit and a half and bet it like this: 

McCaffrey - 30% 
Samuel - 15%
Pacheco - 40%
Mahomes - 15% 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024