Wheeler And Castellanos Should Lead Phillies To Easy Victory

Rangers vs. Phillies, 1:05 ET

This is the matchup I wanted. I was ready for this one last season when the two teams were among the four remaining squads in the playoffs. Ultimately, it didn’t happen but that doesn’t mean that we can’t play a bit of revisionist history. This is an afternoon matchup that a lot of people will miss because of the start time, but I am personally looking forward to the game. Today, we put a play on the game between the Rangers and Phillies. 

The Rangers are coming off of a magical World Series run that saw them capture the first championship in their franchise’s history. This year, Texas has been, well, average. There are a lot of teams that find it hard to make back-to-back runs, and the Rangers seem to be suffering from that right now. I can’t really point to anything specific outside of that fact that the team isn’t hitting quite as well or scoring as many runs as their offense did last year. Don’t get me wrong, they are still hitting around .247 and are scoring about 4.5 runs per game. That’s solid, but the offense last year was racking up runs. This year doesn’t seem to have the same consistent success. The pitching staff is among the league’s more average group right now. As a club, they sit around a four-run ERA and have a 1.27 WHIP. Today, they send out Andrew Heaney to take on the tough Phillies lineup. Heaney has been acceptable in his nine starts for the Rangers. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his past four outings, but he did last just 3.2 innings in his most recent start. The Rangers are also somehow 1-8 in games that Heaney starts. So, clearly, there is a lack of run support coupled with the occasional bad performance. Nick Castellanos' eyes are probably lighting up as he has five hits in six at-bats against Heaney. 

May 11, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Texas Rangers pitcher Andrew Heaney (44) delivers against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies are playing the type of baseball that I thought they would last season. When they signed Trea Turner last year, I was expecting them to give the Braves a run for their money with the division. Turner wasn’t great, but found his way late in the season, the Phillies then grabbed a Wild Card and marched their way to the National League Championship Series. They fell short and lost to the Diamondbacks, but it was a nice result nonetheless. This year they started pretty average and then went on fire, now up around 20 games above .500. It has been a combination of great hitting and really solid pitching. Their Ace takes the hill today as Zack Wheeler looks to stop the Rangers offense. This season, Wheeler is throwing to a 2.52 ERA and sports a stellar 0.97 WHIP. He has seven quality starts out of 10 total outings. At home he has been even more special with a 1.63 ERA and holding opponents to a .159 batting average. Rangers hitters have hit Wheeler well in the past, going 18-for-56 against him. Only five of those hits have gone for extra-bases. 

There is a clear mismatch among the pitching here with Wheeler on Heaney – at least on paper. Wheeler is a good starter and Heaney has pitched well this month. The Phillies should be able to get some runs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wheeler allows a few as well. I can’t say that the game will go over the total, but that’s how I’d lean. Instead, I’ll take the Phillies run line in this game. They are playing too well to pass this up. 

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