Value Bets for the NCAA Championship

The brackets are set and I'm sure by now you've already filled out a few of them at this point. The crazy thing about college basketball this year is that no team is that good. What I mean by that is that there is not a single team in the bracket that I'd be shocked to see lose a game. If your TikTok is anything like mine, you've probably seen a few videos from people saying that only five people fit the KenPom metrics to win the tournament. Take what you like but here are the bets that I think have a chance to win the NCAA Championship.

Alabama is my favorite to win at +650. I think they have all the potential in the world and they are rolling right now. They lost to Texas A&M in a game that didn't matter but outside of that, they've won seven of their last eight games. Then when it did matter against the Aggies, they were able to win by almost 20 points in order to take the SEC tournament. They have a good combination of talent and are being led by the play of their frontcourt. I think they will cause a lot of headaches for teams. I'm taking a flyer on Alabama to win the tournament. They do have a pretty tough bracket, so this isn't going to be a cakewalk, though.

What if I told you one of the biggest names in college basketball, that won their tournament this year, was in the Final Four last year, and are +3500 to win the championship this year? That's right, Duke is +3500 to win the tournament this year. It certainly won't be easy, but they should beat Oral Roberts (especially with the way that Duke is playing right now). They have the ability to beat an inconsistent Tennessee team. I also think that Purdue might be a good matchup for Duke. This isn't a team I have a ton of faith in to win the tournament, but I also don't think that they should be 35:1 right now.

I honestly don't think that I'd take anyone from the Midwest bracket to win the championship. Houston is a good team, but there is no value in them and I don't think they even make the Final Four. I have more faith in Indiana (+5000) or Texas (+1400) to win from that bracket. Even Miami has a ton of potential and if they were more consistent, I'd probably take them.

I'm concerned about the health of Kansas. They should make it to the Sweet 16 with relative ease, but I am not sure they will overcome UCLA or Gonzaga. Still, at +1200, Kansas repeating seems to have a bit of value to me. I think they are worth taking a shot on. If they are healthy, they might be the best team in the country.

My tickets will be on Alabama, Duke, and Kansas. I also will put sprinkles on teams like Indiana and Marquette. I'm not sure either of them will win, but if they do, I'm in line for a big payday. It also is possible we can hedge at other times. The good thing is these futures are going to be cashed relatively quickly so we don't have to tie up money for a very long time.

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