Total Take As Two Underdogs Look To Continue Their Run

Oakland vs. North Carolina State, 7:10 ET

I love sports. Obviously, otherwise I wouldn't have put the investment into sports betting and writing plays every day. But, I love what it does to people. The emotional investment, the arguing, everything, I think it makes the games even more interesting. My kid is a senior in high school and hasn't watched a single college basketball game with me this season. That was until Thursday when he came home telling me all about his bracket. Then he sat down and watched a game with me, on the edge of his seat. Kentucky broke his hopes and dreams as they lost to the team we will talk about here, Oakland. Will they keep their run alive? Let's see how we should play Oakland vs. North Carolina State in a 14 vs. 11 matchup.

Oakland pulled off the improbable as they upset Kentucky in a thrilling 80-76 victory. Watching the game was interesting for a few reasons. Oakland was clearly the more poised team, and this might be when the benefit of having juniors and seniors on your squad comes in handy. They played better defense, they took better shots, ran a more complete offense. Down the stretch they didn't collapse. There was one moment where their coach had to corral the team as they were going to shoot some free throws with roughly 20 seconds left and a couple of players were trying to get the crowd to make noise. Outside of that moment, they looked like the better team and they stole the game away from the Wildcats. The credit starts with Jack Gohlke who poured in 32 points for Oakland. He essentially only shoots threes (seriously, I think he's only had about eight two-point attempts this year). Trey Townsend, Oakland's forward, was able to grab 12 rebounds and 17 points. He played a big game despite not having a size advantage over Kentucky's team. What surprised me the most was the defense for Oakland. They played a zone and Kentucky essentially stood around and passed the ball side to side for 15 seconds and then took a bad shot.

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 21: Jack Gohlke #3 of the Oakland Golden Grizzlies reacts after scoring a three pointer against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 21, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

North Carolina State took an interesting path to even make the tournament. It was a bit of a question mark a little more than a week ago that they would've made this tournament, but they did so well in the ACC Tournament that they won and got an automatic bid. It seems like some school does this every year, but in this case North Carolina State had lost seven of their ten games before the end of the regular season and were just 17-14 going into the tournament. They then took down Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina. That is quite the gauntlet that they had to run through to get here. In their first game of this tourney, they took down Texas Tech. It wasn't much of a surprise, but the team was led by their forwards. They have three guys on the team that combine to do most of the dirty work and post work that wears opponents down. As a team, they only hit five three-pointers on 13 attempts. On defense they held their opponent to just 7-for-31 from deep. If they can do that once again against Oakland, they should coast in this game. North Carolina State has a clear edge with their forwards, however my concern is that if they pass the ball into the post and the Oakland defense collapses, will they have enough outside shooting to play Oakland well? 

I expect this game to be a bit slower moving. I am thinking that North Carolina State will work the ball around and try and find one of their forwards down low. Oakland will likely do the same thing they've been doing and playing inside out. I am going to take the under 145.5 in this game. I expect this game to be a battle. I do kind of lean towards Oakland to cover this game with the 5.5 points, but I feel stronger about the total in this one. 

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