Sun Will Coast To Victory Over Wings

Sun vs. Wings, 9:30 ET

We brought back the WNBA plays yesterday as the league returned to action after the Olympics and All-Star Break. With it came another play that cashed for us. I recommended we play the Mercury to cover a short spread against the Sky. I was under the impression that Chennedy Carter would play in the game, but her sitting only helped our case as the Mercury cruised to a big win. We are going back to the hardwood as we put a play on the game between the Sun and Wings in Dallas.

The Sun have championship aspirations and the team is adding to the team to boost those hopes. They don't have an easy path as they will eventually run into the New York Liberty. At 18-6, they've clearly established themselves as one of the best teams in all of basketball. I specifically mentioned the Liberty because they have beaten the Sun three times this season, so half of their losses have come against their division rivals. Tonight's game isn't against a team the quality of the Liberty, so they should be able to win this game with little effort or issue. The team is led by Dewanna Bonner, Bionna Jones, and Dijonai Carrington, who all average about 13 or more points per game. The team has two other solid players also averaging 11 points per game, but the bench offers very little help outside of that. At least until recently when they acquired Marina Mabrey who is a strong shooter and scorer for the team. How they incorporate her into the mix is the biggest question. Mabrey has certainly improved her defense, but she needs to get a good amount of volume in order to be truly effective offensively. I think the Sun should be able to work her in fairly seamlessly. Tonight will be her first game action with the Sun so there could be a bit of a learning curve, luckily they are playing a pretty crummy team.

May 15, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale (24) dribbles during the first quarter against the Chicago Sky at College Park Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Wings almost have the reverse record of the Sun. So far this season, Dallas is just 6-19 and the biggest issue of this team is that they play virtually no defense. The team has allowed almost 90 points per game. Teams are racking up a ton of points against the Wings, with no team scoring fewer than 80 points in a game since the Sun on May 31st. The team did seem like they were getting better before the break, beating both Atlanta and the Fever, but I'm not sure if that will continue here. The Wings do have one really good thing going for them - Arike Ogunbowale. She has been dominant for the team all year and seemed like a big snub for the Olympics - bigger than Caitlin Clark to be honest. If you need proof, go watch the All-Star game where Ogunbowale lit up the Olympic team over and over again in the third quarter. If you were impressed by the Steph Curry streak in the gold medal game, you'll love this as well as she was destroying the opposition. This game will be a challenge for her though as the Sun have one of the better defenses in the league. If she gets hot like she did before, it really won't matter. 

I find the spread on this game a bit concerning. The Sun may be on the road, but they are significantly better than the Wings. Perhaps it is because the first game the two played this year the Wings pushed the Sun to the limit before falling by two points. The next time the two teams played, this time in Dallas, where the Wings have been better, the Sun won by 18. I don't feel as confident that the Sun are going to pour in points tonight, but I wouldn't take an under in the game either. I think the best play is the obvious one - the Sun should crush the Wings, even with trying to figure out the rotations and everything else. Back the Sun -5.5 in this one.

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