Struggling Snell Will Get Hammered By Phillies

Phillies vs. Giants, 5:50 ET

The MLB Season is not quite a third of the campaign through, but we have a pretty good idea of most of the teams at this point. We know that some are not going to make the postseason, essentially, no matter what happens from here on out. We have a good idea of the teams that will make it, and that really leaves about 10 teams in each league vying for division/wild card spots. Because there are six spots in each league, it has kept it interesting though. There is a bigger window for teams to make the playoffs. That's a good thing for the Giants who will need to grab a Wild Card spot if they want to make it, and the Phillies should have either a Wild Card or the Division.  

The Phillies are off to the best start in their franchise's history, and are 22 games above .500. For the better part of a month, they have been the best team in baseball and playing ridiculously well. Is it sustainable? Probably not, but the true team almost certainly lies somewhere between the .500 club they were and the one that has gone 30-8 over their last 38 games. The team really doesn't have many weaknesses. They can hit for average, shown by their .258 clip. They can hit for power, reflected in the 63 homers they have as a team, and they can score runs with the best of them, highlighted by the 289 they have this season. Their pitching staff has been very impressive as well with the 3.13 collective ERA, one of the best in the Majors. Their team WHIP is also just 1.16 and they've struck out three batters for every walk they allow. That's a lethal combination that makes it hard to produce anything against them. Today they send out Taijuan Walker to the hill. He has been one of the few guys on the team that isn't quite carrying his weight yet. His numbers probably look a bit worse than he's performed. His first start of the season saw him allow six earned over 6.1 innings. Since then, he has allowed just nine earned runs over 20.1 innings. He has allowed at least one homer in every one of his starts, and has allowed 41 baserunners over his 26.2 innings pitched. He did face the Giants earlier this season and it was a quality start for him. 

May 22, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Blake Snell (7) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Giants are at the .500 mark and if you follow them at all, you'll see that they are a team that fluctuates between above and below .500 very frequently. They have stretches where they play really good baseball, and others where they seemingly can't buy a win. I suppose you can say that about most teams, but this is more obvious with the Giants. As a team, their hitting isn't really the cause of many issues for them. The offense is hitting almost .250, which is a nice number, and they've even scored 237 runs which is a strong output so far in the campaign, averaging out to over 4.5 runs per game. The pitching staff has been the bigger issue for the club. Their team ERA is at 4.45 and their WHIP is at 1.35. They do have a better than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but they are still allowing too many free passes and not getting out of it. This becomes more evident when you look and see that opponents are also hitting .255 against their pitchers. Some of these numbers should come down as the season progresses. But, there also needs to be some concern. Let's look at last year's Cy Young winner who the Giants signed for this year, Blake Snell. Snell starts today and he has been awful. He hasn't completed five innings this season and has allowed 19 earned runs over 15 innings. For a guy that was trying, or is trying, to bet on himself, this couldn't be going worse. He is allowing two base runners per inning he has pitched. He isn't being done in by the long ball, either. He made his first start of May last week and allowed four earned runs on four hits while walking four batters. He only finished 3.1 innings. Phillies hitters have been decent against him, batting .250 over 84 at-bats, but Whit Merrifield stands out against him, going 7-for-12 with three extra-base hits. 

The Phillies will win this game. I don't have a ton of faith in Walker, but right now how can you back Snell? Walker's numbers look worse than they actually are, and I think Snell may be pitching worse than his numbers are (and his numbers are bad). The Phillies are coming off of losing two of three to the Rockies, so maybe they are cooling down and the Giants are heating up. I still think this is a good chance we see a bunch of runs in this game and we see the Phillies on the winning side of it. Back the Phillies, lean toward the over. 

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