Navy vs. SMU, 7:30 ET
I am a little surprised this is the ESPN Friday Night Game. Why would they put two teams that don't have a huge draw on a nationally televised game. Maybe the Navy has a draw because of our love for the military, but SMU? They've been on a couple of times now. Nonetheless, I have a play for the game and I want to share it with you. Whether you want to watch the game or not is your call.
The Navy broke out their offense for the first time this season last week. They were able to put up 53 points on Tulsa. Do you know how many points they scored in their first four games combined? That would be 53 points. If you follow Navy at all, you're probably not surprised, but they basically just run the ball the entire time they are on the field. They put up 53 points last week and threw the ball exactly eight times. That's kind of hard to do. They had two completions on the day. Their quarterback only had one completion for nine yards. Their touchdown was a 26-yard pass from a wide receiver. Of the 348 yards they allow in a game, about 75% comes from the opponents passing game.
SMU doesn't have the best passing game in the world, but quarterback Tanner Mordecai is pretty solid. He already has accumulated 1,680 yards and 12 touchdowns. However, he has also give up six interceptions. With the Navy allowing the opponents passing game to succeed I expect that to be the way that SMU attacks. SMU doesn't really rely on the running game quite as much, but that is mostly due to them having to play catchup in the games. I do expect their defense to struggle to stop the strong running game of the Navy, but when you know what the opponent is going to do every play it is significantly easier to gameplan.
I think this game should be a breeze for SMU. I don't see Navy stopping the offensive attack very often. I do expect Navy to be able to score, and they will run the clock down a bit, so the under might be a good look here, but I'm not going to play it because I think SMU could put up 30+ tonight. I'll take SMU to cover the spread of 12.5 instead.
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