Robinson Will Shine Against Former Coach

Steelers vs. Falcons, 1:00 ET

A new football season is upon us and we have our first Sunday of action ahead of us. Get the beer on ice, heat up the nachos and buffalo chicken dip, and find the most cozy spot on the couch. We are ready for hours of uninterrupted football as this great game returns to fill our hearts with excitement, drama, and fun times with friends and family. In addition to all of that, we get to bet on the games - I have a bet here between the Steelers and Falcons. 

I will share my thoughts on this game overall, but my main play is a player prop - feel free to skip ahead if you don't want to know about some of the changes and thoughts on the teams for this year. The Steelers are that one franchise that I have struggled to predict for the past few years. Pittsburgh had terrible quarterbacks for the past two years and were able to find ways to continuously produce victories. Their defense was good, their offense was good enough is the best way to put it. Most importantly, Mike Tomlin is a great coach that puts them in spots to make the most of their opportunities. They have traded away a few pieces, but they have also brought in two quarterbacks this offseason after having no true starting quarterback on the roster last season. Now they have Russell Wilson leading the charge. The Broncos weren't great last year, but he was good enough and probably better than you'd expect. With a better roster and situation, he could return to some of the success he had before. The Falcons also are turning over a new leaf. Last season they had Arthur Smith as their head coach. He was brutal. Every time I watched a clip of him it seemed like he was unhappy and the team didn't appear to like him. Smith is now on the Steelers and is the offensive coordinator. The Falcons tried to supply him with offensive pieces, but he couldn't make it work. Part of that was the lack of a reliable quarterback, but nonetheless, it seemed like he underutilized players and didn't have control of the locker room. Now the team has Kirk Cousins and drafted Michael Penix Jr., so, just like the Steelers, they went from no great quarterback to two potential options. Cousins is coming off of an injury so who knows how well he will play. 

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 22: Bijan Robinson #7 of the Atlanta Falcons carries the ball during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on October 22, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Going back to the idea of Smith underutilizing players on the Falcons, there are two guys that I had in mind: Kyle Pitts and Bijon Robinson. Specifically in this game, I think Robinson is going to be a feature and highlighted frequently in the game. Robinson had 214 carries, 976 yards, and four touchdowns last season. The number of carries put him at 19th in the league, and he was 15th in yards. He had one game where he received one carry, another where he got seven, and the most he ever had was 22 against the Cardinals. He had just two 100-yards games last year. They did put him in the passing game a bit as he had 86 targets for the year and 58 catches, but it was a bit inconsistent. The Falcons used the eighth pick of the draft on Robinson last year and it was with the intention that he would be the focal point of the offense. He clearly was not featured often enough. No one seems to know the true story of why Robinson received just one carry against the Buccaneers, and it frequently seemed like he wasn't allowed to get some of the more obvious red zone carries. Maybe Smith didn't like him, maybe it was some other reason. 

That leads me to my thought for this game: I think the Falcons are going to give the ball to Robinson between 15 and 20 times in this game. If he continues to average four yards per carry, that will put him at 60 yards minimum. He has a rushing total of 65.5 yards and I fully expect him to go over this total. Last season, the Steelers allowed an average of 98 yards on the ground to opposing running backs and nine touchdowns. I'm backing Robinson to get a bit of revenge and ram this down Smith's throat. I'll back Robinson over his rushing yards. I also think he will score a touchdown at +100 and will sprinkle 2+ touchdowns at +550.