Pitching Showdown Looms In Cincinnati

Dodgers vs. Reds, 1:40 ET

We've reached the end of our weekend. That usually means we put a bet on the most popular game of the baseball day, which is Sunday Night Baseball. However, I don't want to force a bet on a game just because it is likely to be the most watched one of the day. Also, I think I've found a better angle in this game than what I had in the other one, so that's what we are doing. Today we have the Dodgers wrapping up their series with the Reds. 

The Dodgers are once again marching up the standings and building on what will be another division title. I am sure there are a lot of haters that the team has been able to just open their wallets and spend money on big name players to position themselves to win, but the reality is that's what we should want for all teams. I suppose maybe the hatred comes from a place of jealousy. I can't say for certain, but if the Reds had the Dodgers roster, don't you think they would sell out tickets and have the stadium filled every day? I don't think we need to get too deep into the finances of the teams, but just understand that the Dodgers are doing the right thing and their front office is not just spending freely, they spend smartly. Today they send out one of their two huge acquisitions from the offseason, Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the hill to face the Reds. The Dodger right-hander has been reliable for the club, but I wouldn't call him a true Ace just yet. The real question I have is how he will do over the course of the season. He struggled when he first started, but I get that - nerves, new environment, etc. He has thrown 48 innings in April and May and has allowed just 14 earned runs. He also is 20th in WHIP in the league. This will be the Reds first time facing Yamamoto, and typically the first time through the lineup is when you can do the most damage against him. 

CINCINNATI, OHIO - APRIL 08: Elly De La Cruz #44 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after hitting an inside-the-park home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in the seventh inning of a baseball game at Great American Ball Park on April 08, 2024 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images)

The Reds are disappointing this season. They are significantly under .500 and came into the season with expectations that they might be able to compete for, and maybe even win the division. That's obviously not where they stand now, and if the trade deadline was a little bit closer, you'd probably guess that they will be sellers instead of buyers. The team is still led by Elly De La Cruz, but he isn't quite as exciting as he was last season. Teams have started to figure him out a bit, and he has a .254 batting average. That's not terrible, but it does leave a lot of room for improvement. Their pitching really hasn't been that bad, and I expect some of the arms to become available, especially if they don't have multiple years of control left. Andrew Abbott takes the hill for them today and he has been one of the bright spots for the club this year. The young left-handed starter has a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP which puts him in the top portion of the league for both numbers. He has been on a nice stretch recently as well, allowing just one earned run over his last 14 innings, and just five earned over 24 innings this month. He doesn't walk a ton of guys, but he does give up the long ball a little more frequently than you'd like. There is only one Dodger who has faced Abbott, it is Shohei Ohtani who is 1-for-1 against him with… you guessed it, a home run.

The Dodgers should win this game, but I think the Reds could keep it close. I won't get involved in the moneyline or run line for this one. Instead, I think the teams have a low score on this Sunday afternoon contest and will take the under through five innings. If we can get both Yamamoto and Abbott to pitch how they have been, or even 75% as good as they have been this should cash. Back the under. 

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