No Doubt: Under Will Hit in Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks, 10:10 ET

April is always a bit of an odd month for an outdoor sport like baseball. Unlike football, a sport that you play in literally any weather outside of lightning, baseball postpones games for issues with the rain or snow. Today alone, there are four games that are already postponed due to weather. I'd imagine some of these teams would be happy about it, but all of them are starting a series so it isn't like they get to leave town early either. I've spent enough time focusing on what isn't going to happen, let's talk about what will.

We saw this game play out a few days ago and took down a +160 win, our first big plus money win of the year. Tonight, we get the Dodgers facing the Diamondbacks once again. Even for two divisional teams it seems like this is a bit much to start a season facing each other eight times in the first 10 games of the season. They also don't face each other again until August. Dustin May started that game we won last week and starts this one as well. I must admit, we got a bit lucky considering that May went seven innings and allowed just three hits in the game. Maybe May is a better pitcher than I think he is. There isn't much to go by on his performance from last year, but his first start against the Diamondbacks was certainly better than his one start against them last season when he allowed five earned runs in four innings. May has allowed 10 hits in 40 at-bats against him with the Diamondbacks, but he's good at controlling the damage.

The Diamondbacks are one of those teams that I think will sneak under the radar and could finish as high as third in the division this season. Most of that comes with a reliance on a strong starting pitching staff. Their offense will likely struggle to get them to too many wins, and you'll sweat out a lot of games with them, but I just want to be clear: don't lump them in with the Nationals, Pirates, Reds, and Marlins. Today they have Merrill Kelly back on the mound again to face the Dodgers. Kelly didn't have a great start against Los Angeles in the first one, but he obviously did enough to keep the dangerous Dodgers hitters at bay. He was able to hold them to three hits over 3.2 innings, but still allowed four walks. The good news is that he didn't allow a run. He was solid at home last season. He did struggle against the Dodgers last year but was better against them at home.

We have two good pitchers coming into this game. We have a really strong offense in the Dodgers, but the Diamondbacks are not a dangerous team. Quite frankly I'm a bit surprised about how high this total is. Kelly is too good, and May has shown he can be dominant. I'm going to take the under 9 runs in this game.

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