Lugo Will Continue Dominance Against Rays

Royals vs. Rays, 6:50 ET

This is one of maybe a handful of times that I'll do something like this in a season. I write two articles a day (typically) for the entirety of the baseball season. There are roughly 210 days in the baseball calendar. That's 420 articles per year - somewhere in that neighborhood, and we have one of those rare days where I'm willing to put out a play before the pitching matchup is official. Pitching is the single most important thing about baseball. For perspective, you'd rarely put a play on a football game without knowing who will be the opposing team's starting quarterback. In this case, I really don't care who is on the mound as the Royals have the pitching edge over the Tampa Bay Rays. 

The Royals have been a bit of an ATM for me this season as they were vastly undervalued. Let's be really clear and honest here: I thought the Royals were going to be a disaster once again this season. I believe I even wrote something along those lines in my AL Central Division preview. Openly, I'm not great at baseball futures. This team has a pitching staff that is looking deep and strong. It could be a force to be reckoned with at the end of this season, and they are certainly in a winnable division. Salvador Perez, the one true leader/veteran of the club, is having a great year with a .337 average and a .401 On Base Percentage. He also is mashing the ball with a .551 Slugging Percentage. If he keeps this up, the team keeps winning, expect to hear some chatter for MVP with this guy. The Royals could also be in the conversation for the Cy Young award as today's starter, Seth Lugo, is looking worthy. Lugo comes into the game with a 7-1 record and a 1.79 ERA. He also sports a very strong 0.98 WHIP meaning he is keeping the basepaths relatively clean for the majority of the game. Just once this year has he allowed more than two earned runs in a game. Despite allowing six home runs on the season, he has allowed a total of 13 earned runs. That signifies that if you're going to hurt Lugo, it will be by the longball, something I don't think the Rays do particularly well. In fact, they only have three hits off of Lugo in 15 at-bats and none went over the fence. 

Jun 30, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) high-fives right fielder Luke Raley (55) after hitting a two-run home run against the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning at T-Mobile Park. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) kneels at left. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Rays don't have an identified starter for today's contest at the time of writing. That means this could be a bullpen game, it could be a starter being called up, returning from injury, or simply someone already in the rotation is going, they just aren't sure who. Personally, I don't care who it is. The Royals offense should be good enough against anyone that Tampa throws out there. For the season, the Rays are hovering around .500. If we are being honest, that's probably where they will end up at the end of the year as well. I like the Rays franchise as I think very few have done more with less - they aren't a big market, and they are in the toughest division in baseball - they always find a way to compete. This season just doesn't seem to have that same possibility. The team doesn't have as deep of a pitching staff as they have in year's passed. Their offense is fine, but not producing at a clip needed to really make an impact. They have lost four straight games, and have allowed at least four runs in each of the past five games. 

This isn't as much about who is pitching on both sides as it is about who is pitching for the Royals. I think the Rays lose this game by more than 1.5 runs and advise taking the run line. I've tried this before, but the team total also should go under for the Rays. Feel free to play both, I probably will depending on what number is available for 3.5 on the team total for the Rays - if I can find it at -125 or lower I'll play it. 

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