Lopez Will Outduel Ragans In Twins Opener

Twins vs. Royals, 4:10 ET

I've written baseball articles for Outkick for I believe three seasons now. This will be my fourth season of work with them and I can tell you that I've had a lot of success doing these. That doesn't mean everything is a winner. It doesn't mean that you should empty your bankroll on the plays. I could have a terrible year. I could struggle to start. I could also have a great year, and I could come out of the gates hot (I did win my first play of the MLB season on the Padres when they played the Dodgers in South Korea). The only certainty is that the beginning of this season provides me with hope. I'm hopeful that this will be a great year and I am looking forward to today's play as the Twins take on the Royals.

I was very wrong about the Twins last season. I struggled to get a good read for when they would win and when they would lose. The only player on their team that I had any accuracy with was Sonny Gray as I identified his success early in the season and rode that for a few wins early. I am not a believer in the team. I think they are an average baseball club that gets a little extra luck because they play in a bad division. You'd rack up wins too if you played the Royals, White Sox, Tigers, and even last year's Guardians team. That isn't their fault, of course. In any case, I just have never believed in their team. I think they are mediocre, and rarely bet on them to win games. However, today might bring us an opportunity as Pablo Lopez is taking the mound, and he has the potential to put together a strong campaign this year. Lopez went 11-8 last season with a 3.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Last season, he was significantly better on the road than he was at home, having a full run lower ERA on the road. He faced the Royals three times last season, the first game was an easy 5.1 innings of two-hit ball and no runs allowed. The second game was a struggle, but the Twins still won 8-6 as Lopez allowed six earned runs over six innings. His final start saw him go nine shutout innings and allow just four hits while striking out 12. All of those starts came at home. 

SURPRISE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 26: Carter Jensen #74 of the Kansas City Royals hits an RBI double against the Chicago Cubs during the second inning of a spring training game at Surprise Stadium on February 26, 2024 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

For the Royals, what expectations do we have for them this season? The team hasn't been relevant in years and I am not sure they even have the farm system to make them relevant any time soon either. On a personal note, it drives me nuts that teams in bad divisions don't try harder. I get that the Royals aren't a big market, but clearly they are supported when they have a winner. They could get to the playoffs if they invested some money and then anything could happen. Alas, that isn't likely to happen any time soon. They've decided that this is the team they will field, and keep developing their squad. They have one player that most teams would consider trading for - Salvador Perez - but aside from him, I'm not quite sure there is anyone worth keeping an eye on this year for a true impact player. Today's starter will be Cole Ragans. Ragans is a young left-hander that put together a nice season last year, going 7-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He was better at home than on the road, and was a better starter than reliever last year. He did not face the Twins, but has had a few moments against some of their hitters. In limited exposure, the Twins hitters are 2-for-6 with three walks as well.

The Royals are getting a bit of money in this one, but I'm not really understanding why. Is it because they are a home team? Is it that Ragans is expected to perform well? At this point, I feel like people have hyped up Lopez (I don't particularly see him being a Cy Young candidate, but I said the same thing about Sandy Alcantara two years ago) and are fading him against an inferior team. I'll take the Twins through five and believe that Lopez and the Twins can get the best of what will be a bottom-dwelling Royals team. Sorry Royals fans, I actually like the franchise (more than the Twins, especially) but right now the edge and hope lies with Minnesota. 

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