Even With Great Starters On The Mound, Offenses Should Be Effective

Yankees vs. Phillies, 6:40 ET

Yankees vs. Phillies, 6:40 ET

Could this be a World Series preview? I mean of all the teams in the league I have to imagine this would be one of the combinations that Major League Baseball would like the most to be squared up for a chance at the crown. I suppose having the Dodgers vs. Yankees would be another one of the top matchups. While we still need to wait a few months before we get to the World Series, I think this is a good preview and fun for us to play the game of "What if?". Tonight, the Yankees and the Phillies take each other on - both with hopes of hoisting the trophy at the end of the season. 

The Yankees are 18 games over .500 at 63-45, and despite winning their past three games they haven't been great lately. The three-game winning streak puts them at 5-5 after the All-Star Break, but they are 14-24 since June 13th. The Yankees have a couple of problems in the infield with hitting, and they did make a big addition with Jazz Chisholm coming over from the Marlins a few days ago. He was one of the biggest prizes on the trade market and the Yankees scooped him up. I expect them to continue to try and find pieces that can help bolster what is already a championship-caliber roster. The Yankees are just a half-game back of the Orioles for the division lead and own a Wild Card spot at the moment. To further solidify their rank in the league, they get their ace, Gerrit Cole taking the mound today. Cole started the season on the injured list, and is making just his eighth start of the season. For the year, Cole has a 3-2 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Those are not ace numbers, but I assume he will eventually regain his form. He has two quality starts this season, and both came this month. Both of those came before his last start against the Mets, a team which he has somehow allowed 12 earned runs to in 9.2 innings. Phillies hitters have been surprisingly successful against Cole over their careers, hitting .311 against him in 122 at-bats. They only have three homers against him though. 

The Phillies are having a magical regular season, and will likely coast their way into the playoffs. They have an 8.5-game lead over the Braves and a 9-game lead over the Mets for the division. Their run differential this season is +104, which is only behind one team for the year - the Yankees. I criticized the Yankees for their performance lately, and the Phillies are 3-7 over their past ten games. They also have lost four of their past five games. Zooming out a bit, and comparing apples to apples, since June 13th, the Phillies are 19-20. The team did make an addition to their club, with Austin Hays coming over from the Orioles. They will likely continue to tinker with the bullpen and make smaller upgrades to finish out the season. They added Carlos Estevez, the former closer from the Angels, who will bolster the back end of the bullpen. On the front end, Aaron Nola is taking the mound with an 11-4 record and a 3.44 ERA. His best number is his WHIP which sits at 1.06 for the year. In nine starts over June and July, Nola has produced seven quality starts. He has allowed nine earned runs over 23 innings in July. Yankees hitters have done well against Nola, hitting .246 over 118 at-bats. Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton are good bets to put in a lineup for fantasy plays or props today.

Sometimes when you look at a game you end up looking at the starters and think it will be a low score because of the two that are on the mound. If history is any indication, even with these strong names on the hill, the offenses should have a nice day today. The Yankees and Phillies both haven't played very good baseball lately, so it is hard to lean one way or another for the winner of the game. I think the better play here to tackle the over. I think we should see over 9 runs even with Cole and Nola on the mound. Offenses have played well against them, and both have the power to put up nine runs in any game. Back the over. 

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