Diamondbacks Will Dominate In Important Matchup

Reds vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

A 2-0 day yesterday was just what the doctor ordered. Don't get me wrong, we've been on a mini hot streak lately, but it hasn't been all winning. We've had a few days of pushes and some losses, but we've also had days where we've been profitable because of plus money plays, and because we've taken down multiple plays in one game. Tonight we look to keep rolling in a matchup between the Reds and Diamondbacks.

It is interesting how a division can impact how successful your season is viewed. For example, the Reds are just 3.5 games back in their division but have virtually identical records to the Diamondbacks who sit 11.5 games back in the NL West. The Reds are the current owners of the third Wild Card spot, but that almost doesn't matter right now as they are tied with the Cubs for the second spot, 2.5 games back of the Phillies for the first spot, and have three teams within two games of them for the final spot. So, what I'm saying is that the Reds can't really afford to have any subpar games. They send out Brandon Williamson to the mound tonight in hopes of stealing the series opener from the Diamondbacks. Williamson only has one situation that he has been successful in this season: day starts. This doesn't fall into that category as it is a night game (5.24 ERA) and road game (4.79 ERA). He did face Arizona once this season and had one of his best starts - a six inning outing where he allowed just three hits and one earned run. You probably guessed it, but that was a day game. He's been pretty solid lately as he has three quality starts over his past six outings. Two of the other ones saw him go five and two-thirds innings and allow fewer than three earned runs.

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 04: Elly De La Cruz #44 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates after advancing to second base on a single against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park on July 04, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

The Diamondbacks were a team I took a bet on the other day and unfortunately dropped the game. I took the under with Zac Gallen on the mound and I lost by a hook. I should've just bet on the Diamondbacks to win the game, but I didn't. In that article, I covered how much ground the Diamondbacks lost in the division since the second half started. The Dodgers being the best team in baseball and the struggles of Arizona have combined to drop them from first place to third and 11.5 games back. They are now fighting for a Wild Card berth. To that end, this important series against a fellow Wild Card competitor is being opened by Merrill Kelly. Kelly has been one of my favorite pitchers for the past two years. He comes into this game with a 3.13 ERA - 7th best in the league. He doesn't have any drastic home/road splits. However, he is significantly better during night starts as opposed to day starts. There haven't been a ton of at-bats from the Reds against Kelly, but they are just 3-for-18.

I think the Diamondbacks are going to run away with this game. I think they win the first five with ease and you could take them on the run line through five at -125, but I think they probably win the game by more than one run and I'll take the Diamondbacks -1.5 for the game at +120. I wouldn't be surprised if the Diamondbacks/Diamondbacks 1st five/full game parlay hits at +110 either.

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