Death, Taxes, Primetime Unders: New York Jets At San Francisco 49ers Best Bets

Monday Night Football concludes the NFL's four-day Week 1 bender. The New York Jets visit the reigning NFC-champion San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium Monday for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. You could've financed a nice vacation or a gift for your significant other by betting the Under in every Monday Night Football game last year. 

In 2023, Monday Night Football games were 5-14 Over/Under (O/U), and those games went Under the total by an average of 4.0 points per game. Because the public loves to bet Overs and primetime NFL games get the most public action, betting Unders for Monday Night Football is usually profitable. 

With that in mind, nearly 70% of the action is on the Over as of 9:30 a.m. ET Monday, according to Pregame.com. However, when DraftKings first made a line for Jets-49ers this summer, it listed a 45.5-point total. So, regardless of how the market is betting, the sportsbooks think this could be another low-scoring Monday Night Football game. 

Also, San Francisco's offense might need some time to find its rhythm after a chaotic offseason. Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is dealing with a calf injury. San Francisco WR Brandon Aiyuk and LT Trent Williams didn't get many reps this offseason due to contract disputes with the team. All three could be on a limited snap count Monday. 

Furthermore, San Francisco's offensive line is weak outside of Williams. According to ESPN, the 49ers were 20th in pass-blocking win rate and 23rd in run-blocking win rate in 2023. The Niners have a rookie starting at right guard, and their other three starting offensive linemen are league-average or below last year, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). 

READ: On Contract Front, 49ers (Winning Team) And Jets (Losing Team) Doing Their Things

Meanwhile, New York's defense is probably the best in the league, but comfortably inside the top five. The Jets have the best cornerbacks in the NFL, CB Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter, two top-10 linebackers, C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, and a stacked defensive line, even if pass rusher Haason Reddick is holding out.

Speaking of "time to find its rhythm", that applies to New York, times two. Aaron Rodgers played four snaps on Monday Night Football in Week 1 last season before tearing his Achilles. The Jets have three new starters on their offensive line, and they selected LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu with the 11th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

Former Buffalo Bills DE Leonard Floyd sacks New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers in Monday Night Football Week 1 of 2023 at MetLife Stadium. (Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY NETWORK)

According to NYJ's beat writers, the Jets will be a "run-first" offense in 2024. New York RB Breece Hall was a popular pick among NFL bettors to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year. New York will run the ball a lot early this year because it doesn't want a 40-year-old quarterback dropping back often behind a new offensive line. 

Last season, the Jets were 30th in ESPN's pass-blocking win rate and 29th in run-blocking win rate, and San Francisco tied New York with the seventh-most sacks (48). Niners pass rusher, 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bosa is a "force multiplier", who can disrupt NYJ's offensive timing. 

Finally, I'm projecting a slow pace for the Jets-49ers. Rodgers likes to make pre-snap adjustments, which takes time, especially with teammates he's never played with. In 2023, San Francisco had the slowest seconds-per-snap rate in the NFL, according to FTN. 

Prediction: 49ers 21, Jets 17 

• For the record, this is a standard 1.05-unit (u) bet for me. If your "unit" is $100, then I'd risk $105 to profit $100 on UNDER 43.5 (-105) in Jets-49ers at FanDuel.

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San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey UNDER 75.5 rushing yards 

As I mentioned earlier, CMC is managing a calf strain, one of the scarier "minor" injuries to play through. Calf strains lead to torn Achilles, which leads to lost seasons. More importantly, New York's defense was fourth in rushing success rate allowed last year and ninth in rushing EPA/play, per RBSDM.com ("Running Backs Don't Matter"). 

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey carries the ball vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)

Lastly, the legal U.S. sportsbooks' odds for CMC's rushing total differ from Pinnacle Sportsbooks. Pinnacle is a "market-making" shop whose odds FanDuel and DraftKings usually copy. McCaffrey's rushing yards prop is O/U 75.5 compared to O/U 71.5 at Pinnacle with juice on the Under. Take CMC's Under now at FanDuel before the number falls. 

RISK 0.25u on UNDER 75.5 yards (-114) at FanDuel for 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.