Back Bills To Frustrate Lawrence And Jaguars

Jaguars vs. Bills, 7:30 ET

Football was at least a profitable week to this point for me. I cashed the under on the Lions and Cardinals game which was a bit easier than expected after a lot of scoring early on in the game. The teams combined to score just three points in the second half of the game after putting up 30 in the first half, so I was kind of lucky, but this isn't the first time we've seen significant defensive adjustments with Lions games. We are looking to cash another ticket tonight as the Jaguars take on the Bills. 

The Jaguars are in jeopardy of the team being one of the worst in the league and starting the season 0-3. Jacksonville has a lot of good pieces, but they must now put it together against a team that looks very sharp out of the gate. I can't say everything is bleak for the Jaguars as they lost the first game by just three points to the Dolphins, and held them to just 20 points for the game. In the second game, the Browns were able to get their ground action going a bit and the defense took care of the rest. Jacksonville fell by five points in their home opener. Now they need to find a way to rebound and get a victory on the road in prime time against one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Trevor Lawrence has been average through two games and will need to get the ball out quickly against a tough pass rush and sneaky good defense. Lawrence has only completed about half of his passes, which, obviously, is not good enough. They can try and get the ground game going, but I'm fairly certain at this point the Bills will dare Lawrence to throw on them. On defense, the Jaguars are young and have a fair enough team, but they will need to disguise their coverage and mask the blitz packages. 

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - SEPTEMBER 08: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks on during the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Miami Dolphins on September 8, 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Maimi Gardens, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Bills have put together two very good games. I probably need to eat a bit of crow on the stance I have that Josh Allen needs to do everything for the team in order for them to win. I was adamant that the Dolphins would win their game with the Bills in Week 2, but Miami got their butt whooped and lost their quarterback in the process. To be clear, the Bills were winning by a lot even when Tua went down. The game wasn't in control because of Josh Allen, it was in control because the Dolphins were refusing to let Allen beat them, so instead, James Cook went to town on them. Cook had 11 carries for 78 yards and two touchdowns. He also hauled in one pass for 17 yards and a touchdown. He didn't even have to do much in the game after the first half. After looking shaky against the Cardinals in their season opener, the Bills held the explosive Dolphins offense to just 10 points. They are missing a ton of players on the defensive side of the ball, so I do have my reservations about trusting them in many games. Now that the Bills have a running game, they are even harder to prepare for on defense.

The Bills should win this game and I think they are going to cover this game as well. I'm not convinced that Lawrence will be able to keep this one close with the way he is throwing right now. Would a backdoor cover surprise me? Absolutely not. However, I'm going to take the Bills to win this one. Their offense looks too good right now to fade, and I think their defense will have enough, especially with added rest to cover the -5.5 spread. 

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