Alabama Will Continue Rolling On Their Home Court

Florida vs. Alabama, 7:00 ET

I continued my run of hot plays with the NCAA as we took two totals yesterday - one over and one under - and we hit them both. Basketball has been a bit of an ATM this season with essentially only one week being a down week. I expect success, but even this is better than I have expected this season. This has been a fun season to watch as well because there are only a few clear teams that are above average, but we've seen uncharacteristic losses from almost every team at this point. In this contest, we are going to try and keep rolling in a game between Florida and Alabama. 

Florida has cracked the top-25 teams in the nation. At least they are in there for now, but we will see if they remain after this week. On the season, the Gators are 18-7 with an 8-4 record within the SEC. They have been rolling of late having won seven of their past eight games and eight of their past 10. Their only loss over the past eight games was against Texas A&M. In that one, Florida was the road team - a spot most college teams struggle in - and they almost pulled off the victory, losing 67-66. I won't say that they've been an overly dominant team though. They've escaped with victory more than anything. For example, five their past six games have been decided by six points or fewer. Their most convincing win came on their home court against Auburn. This has been a tough schedule for the Gators, which means they have been tested this season. This is the sixth game against a ranked opponent this season, and to this point, they are 2-3 against them. The team has five players averaging double figures, including four guards. The front court does leave a little bit to be desired. They have a couple decent forwards and an okay center, but the problem is that those are really the only strong rebounders. The guards contribute out of necessity, but I wouldn't say they are great rebounders overall. The other issue is as a team, they shoot just 69.3% from the free throw line and 33.6% from deep. 

Looking to defeat Florida, and hosting them, is Alabama. While Florida has struggled a bit in the SEC, Alabama has shined. On the season, the Crimson Tide is 18-7 but they have a 10-2 record within the SEC. Their two losses have come on the road, as expected, and to ranked teams. They lost to Tennessee by 20 points, and they lost to Auburn by 18. It seems a bit strange considering they've dominated the majority of their other games. In the 12 SEC games, they've only had two games decided by five points or fewer. The interesting thing about Alabama is that they've played a ranked opponent six times already this season and they are just 1-5. That doesn't bode well for them now against the #24 ranked Florida, or the next few games against Kentucky, Tennessee, and Florida again. Still, being on their home court seems to be a spot of comfort for them. Against SEC opponents, at home, Alabama has won on average by 21 points. The only game by fewer than 18 points was against Auburn. The team is led by Mark Sears, a strong scoring guard that will combat the Gators back court. The rest of the squad is a bit more balanced than Florida. As a whole, Alabama averages 90 points per game, and only 20 of those come from Sears. 

The total for this game is an eye-popping 174.5, which is very high for a college basketball game. Still, Alabama would have gone over that total in two of their past five games. Florida, on the other hand, has only gone over in one of the games. The line for this one is currently at -8.5. We've seen that Alabama is dominant in these home games against the SEC. I'll take them in this one and expect Florida to get their revenge in the next matchup. Back Alabama to win this one and cover the spread. I do lean toward the under in the game as well. 

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