Betting Wild Card Weekend? Bet the Steelers ASA
As a handicapper in Las Vegas, you start getting to know the big gamblers in the city. Each professional has a different style, perspective, and method to “beating the book.” While they don’t always profit, more often than not, they do. Naturally, I’m open to learning their perspective on any bet because knowledge is everything in this industry.
Here’s the consensus best value bet for this weekend: Bet the Steelers.
Please don’t spend too much time thinking about it. Head over to the FanDuel Sportsbook ASAP and drop some cash on the best value bet of the weekend before the line moves. By game day, it might be too late.
Here’s why:
While the game’s spread jumped from its opening line of -4.5 to its current -6, you’re getting better value now because of the information we have on the Browns.
In case you didn’t know, the Browns are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak, which first stemmed a few weeks ago. They played through it last week in a 24-22 win over Pittsburgh; however, they probably only won because Steelers starting and future hall of fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play. They’re facing a much more complete Pittsburgh team this week, spelling awful news for a Browns team expected to be without key players.
For another week, the outbreak will prevent at least some players from playing Sunday, severely impacting their chances to compete. Further adding to the detriment, head coach Kevin Stefanski won’t coach the team due to a positive test.
I can’t possibly overstate the importance of his loss, as Stefanski is Cleveland’s primary offensive play-caller. With so many players expected out, the Browns’ outlook for Sunday is bleak.
The Browns have eight players currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including guard Joel Bitonio, tight end Harrison Bryant, safety Ronnie Harrison Jr. and cornerback Denzel Ward. With an illness unrelated to COVID-19, tackle Jack Conklin’s status is also up in the air.
That represents a group of irreplaceable talent. While it’s unclear how many, if any, will be cleared to play Sunday, covering the spread against Pittsburgh is increasingly slim. If the injury report isn't enough to convince you to fade, Cleveland only practiced once this week – Friday, two days before their first playoff game since 2002.
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While the Steelers are dealing with a plethora of injuries, primarily at linebacker, they’re by and large the more equipped team going into Sunday. In Roethlisberger’s career, the Steelers are a fantastic 25-3-1 against the Browns and a perfect 15-0 at home. While that doesn’t exactly mean they'll cover, it proves Pittsburgh’s dominance, one we can safely expect to continue Sunday night.
Take the spread now before the market catches up on game day.
If you're looking for advice for the rest of the Wild Card Weekend games, check out The Top-4 Bets For Wild Card Weekend. I've also got two bonus teasers in there that I can't wait to play!
Happy betting!