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Monday has a fairly slim college basketball slate. But, there is an ESPN primetime doubleheader featuring two Power 5 matchups worth gambling on.
The 1st is an ACC showdown pitting the Duke Blue Devils against the No. 19 Miami Hurricanes followed by a Big XII battle between the No. 10 Texas Longhorns and No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks.
Below, I’ll give brief breakdowns of both games and pick which team has the best value in each matchup.
Duke Blue Devils (17-6) at No. 19 Miami Hurricanes (18-5), 7 p.m. ET
Duke won the 1st meeting with Miami 68-66 at home Jan. 21. But, the Hurricanes covered as 6-point road underdogs and it was their 4th consecutive cover vs. the Blue Devils dating back to 2021.
The BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS is the side I’m on because they have more size and a strength-on-weakness edge in rebounding.
Duke has the 2nd-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country, per college basketball guru Ken Pom. Whereas Miami’s defensive rebounding rate is just 258th nationally.
The big reason for this is because the Blue Devils have the biggest team in the country, per Ken Pom, and the Hurricanes are 226th in height. Duke has at least a +10 rebounding margin over its past three opponents.
The Blue Devils are winning the battle possessions by an average of 59.3-57.7 field goal attempts per game. Miami is averaging one fewer field goal attempt per game than its opponent (60.1-59.1).
Finally, Duke’s defense is more reliable and the Blue Devils should improve offensively as the year progresses. Miami is 221st in defensive rating because it doesn’t force many turnovers or clean up the glass on defense.
College Basketball Best Bet #1: Duke +3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +3
No. 10 Texas Longhorns (19-4) at No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks (18-5), 9 p.m. ET
Texas-Kansas is a battle between the 1st- and 2nd-place teams in the Big XII. The Longhorns lead the Big XII with an 8-2 straight up (SU) conference record and the Jayhawks are 6-4 SU in Big XII games.
After smacking around non-conference foes, Kansas has struggled since starting Big XII play. The Jayhawks are just 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in conference play with a -5.5 ATS margin.
Texas is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road vs. Big XII teams this season. The Longhorns rallied back from an 11-point 1st-half deficit to win at the Kansas State Wildcats 69-66 Saturday.
Let’s TAKE THE POINTS WITH TEXAS because the road teams and ‘dogs in this series perform well and the Longhorns are more efficient on both sides of the ball.
The ‘dog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five Texas-Kansas games and the road team is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. The Longhorns have a better offensive rating (111.2-106.8) and defensive rating (96.1-94.7) than the Jayhawks.
Both teams have similar identities but Texas has more experience and plays tighter on-ball defense. Neither shoot a ton of 3-pointers and the Longhorns are 16th nationally in 2-point shooting percentage while the Jayhawks are 107th.
Texas is 7th in experience and Kansas is 233rd, according to Ken Pom. Four of UT’s five starters are upperclassmen while KU lost its three best players from last year’s title team.
Also, DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting via VSIN that nearly 80% of the cash is on Kansas at the time of writing. I’m looking to fade the public in this high-profile college basketball matchup.
Typically, recreational bettors gravitate toward the better ranked team who is at home. However, Ken Pom says Texas has better net efficiency. Sports Reference says Kansas has a lower SRS, which blends point-per-game differential and strength of schedule.
College Basketball Best Bet #2: Texas +4.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +3.5
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One CommentLeave a Reply
These, uh…these didn’t age well.
Bill Self now 36-0 in AFH on Big Monday.
Death, Taxes and Bill Self in the Phog.