Betting the NBA Playoffs: Luka Props and Clippers Bets
After two games, the Clippers look as dysfunctional as they did before they drafted Blake Griffin. They can’t stop Luka, who is averaging 35 points per game in the series. They can’t score outside of Kawhi (thanks for the great Game 2, Playoff P). And, Ty Lue has now discovered that coaching an NBA team without LeBron James might be more of a challenge than he realized. Can the Clippers stop the bleeding and win a game on the road?
The line has moved in favor of the Clippers, signaling that the sharps think that this is the game that the Clippers will take. The line on FanDuel is at Clippers -3 after opening at -2. The Mavericks went 21-15 at home this season, the same record they had on the road, and coincidentally enough, the Clippers are also 21-15 on the road. So how do we play this? Do we take the reeling Clippers that have lost by 10 and 6 on their own court as favorites? Or, do we take the Mavericks to continue the hot streak and steal Game 3?
I was thinking the Clippers would respond with a victory last game, so even though I was burned once, I’m still rolling with them. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering new users a chance to earn $100 in site credit just by betting $10+ on the MoneyLine of either team. Win or lose, you’ll get $100 in site credit. With a deal like that, I’m comfortable betting on the Clippers to win the game and hoping I get not only that money, but the $100 site credit to use later.
I’m also going to double down on a stat that I gave out the other day. The first quarter against the spread, the Mavericks are dead last. They are 13-23 at home covering the opening quarter spread. If the Clippers truly want to take this game, they need to do something right away. Considering in the first two games of the series the Mavericks ended the first quarter ahead and won the game, I have to believe the Clippers will do everything they can to end with a lead. The current spread is -0.5 at -114 towards the Clippers. I loved this bet the other day, and even with the loss Tuesday, I love it today. The stats are there, the reasoning is there, now the Clippers need to deliver.
Luka has some interesting player props tonight as well. He has 29.5 as his point total at -110 both ways. He has averaged 30 against the Clippers this year, averaged two more points at home than on the road, and this will be his first ever home playoff game in Dallas. I see this game going one of two ways: either the Clippers double Luka every time and he scores less than 20, or they let him do whatever he wants and just worry about the rest of the players. I’m taking the over on his point total.
I don’t see the Clippers stopping him, but I don’t see Luka getting much help. The assist total on Luka is 9.5. I’m taking the under. Since April, he has 22 games under 9.5 assists, and only five games over that total. Take him under 9.5 assists at -138. When he goes over, it is usually by more than 1. If you want to try and pre-hedge, I’d feel safer with 11+ assists, but he has +290 for 12+ assists. And, yes, there is a chance he gets 10 or 11 assists and both these bets lose.