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Betting the 2021 Masters – Round 3 Matchups

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Moving day has gone and passed, and some big names didn’t make the cut. Matthew Wolff (+11), Jason Day (+9), Zach Johnson (+7), Rory Mcllroy (+6), Brooks Koepka (+5), and Dustin Johnson (+5) are all gone. There are some great matchups for Round 3, and it’ll be a great full day of golf. The leaderboard has a mix of big names and people that casual fans have never heard of before. In first, Justin Rose sits alone at -7, tied for 2nd is Will Zalatoris and Brian Harman at 6-under. Tied for 4th is Marc Leishman, and Jordan Spieth at -5, and tied for 6th is Bernd Wiesberger, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau at -4.  

I love betting matchups every day. If you only pick the entire tournament winner, you could be out after the first day. Heavy favorites like Dustin Johnson, who just won the Masters last year, aren’t playing anymore, players can have injuries, and it could make the last couple of days boring. With matchups, it’s more like betting a more traditional game. It’s 1 vs. 1 and let the best man win. If you are very bullish on a player, you can find all of their matchups and go big on them. Then if you hate a player, you can fade that player and bet big on their opponent. I went through the matchups for Round Three and found some matchups that I love.  

Tommy Fleetwood (-110) vs. Shane Lowry (+120) 12:20 p.m. ET

Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry are the first matchups we are looking at today. Fleetwood is currently at even par and is tied for 21st. In his first round, he shot +2, which isn’t a surprise as only 12 golfers shot under par on the first day. Fleetwood looked much better in the second round as he shot a -2. Lowry is also tied for 21st, but his even score has come a lot differently than Fleetwood. In the first round, Lowry shot a -1, and on the second day, he shot a +1. In 2020 Lowry finished his 3rd round for the Masters with a -3, compared to Fleetwood, who shot a -1. Taking a look into the advanced numbers tells a different story than simply looking at what happened in last year’s Round Three of the Masters. Fleetwood’s strokes gained around the green ranks 20th on tour, Tee To Green strokes gained is 96th, and his official world golf ranking is 24th. Shane Lowry, on the other hand, his strokes gained around the green are 31st on tour. Lowry has a much better strokes gained Tee To Green as he is 33rd, but his official world golf ranking is worst since he sits at 44th. There’s a reason why these two golfers are tied going round three and have very close odds, but I’m going with Tommy Fleetwood. I believe that Fleetwood is the better golfer and will show up on Saturday. His blowups typically happen on Sunday, so you’ll be clear of a meltdown as he is going into the back 9 in 10th place and all of a sudden finished tied for 20th.  

The pick: Tommy Fleetwood -110

Bryson Dechambeau (-175) vs Matt Jones (+210) 1:00 p.m. ET

 One of the most polarizing players is going against one of the most boring players in this matchup. No disrespect to Matt Jones, but I don’t feel any emotions when I see Matt Jones. Bryson, though is either hated or loved depending on who you ask. Some people think his ridiculous antics are excellent entertainment as he drills the ball 350 yards, and others say that he ruins the game. Bryson is currently tied for 17th with a -1 after two rounds. In the first round, it looked like once again Augusta was Bryson’s kryptonite since he scored +4. He bounced back on day 2, posting a -5. Matt Jones didn’t have as serve of two different rounds. In round one, Jones posted a +2 but played nicely on day two and finished with a -3.

Looking at the advanced numbers, it seems like Bryson should be the pick here. He is 1st in strokes gained tee to green and total strokes gained. He is 5th in the official world golf ranking, but if there’s any chip in his armor, it’s his driving accuracy. Bryson’s driving accuracy percentage was only 58.02%, 133rd on tour. If there’s one thing that Augusta can do is make people pay for bad tee shots. Matt Jones, on the other hand, is just a solid player. He isn’t in the top 10 for one particular stat. His best stat is his strokes gained for putting, which is 23rd. Augusta isn’t only known for its excellent pimento cheese, but also it is rough putting. If you can putt, you will have success at the Masters. Until Bryson wins a green jacket, I won’t believe that hitting bombs will work. That’s why I love the underdog in Matt Jones.  

The pick: Matt Jones +210

Collin Morikawa (-115) vs. Corey Connors (+130) 1:20 p.m. ET

The hype that’s been given to Collin Morikawa is unreal, and for a good reason. The 24-year-old has already made huge splashes since he won the 2020 PGA Championship, and he started his PGA career-making 22 consecutive cuts. The only person to do better is Tiger Woods with 25. I’m shocked that Morikawa’s odds aren’t better here. That might be me just believing in the hype too much. Collin is tied for 13th right now as he shot +1 on the first round, and on day two, he scored an impressive -3. Connors posted the same score for both days, but these two golfers couldn’t more different. Collin’s strokes gained for approaching the green are the best on tour, and he ranks 3rd for tee to green. The man can also post impressive scores as he ranks 3rd in birdies averaged, his drives are accurate with the 10th best driving accuracy percentage, and he is 4th for the official world golf ranking. The only thing that Connors does better is his driving accuracy percentage which is 9th on tour. The difference between Morikawa and Connors’s accuracy is only 0.01%. I don’t believe this will be close at all, so I love Collin Morikawa in this matchup.  

The pick: Collin Morikawa -115

Justin Thomas (-130) vs. Tonty Finau (+145) 1:50 p.m. ET  

This is probably the two biggest names going against each other on Saturday. You have Thomas, who has won tournaments like the PGA Championship, the Players Championship, and a dozen different tournaments, going against Tony Finau, who can’t seem to win anything. Finau is always within striking distance going into Sunday, and then he falls apart. Finau will finish his career making millions upon millions of dollars and only winning the Puerto Rico Open. Thomas currently sits tied for 5th as he shot a +1 in the first round but bounced back on day two and finished with a -5. Finau did worse on day one since he finished with a +2 but had a great second day and finished with a -6. Both of these players can score. Finau is 15th, and Thomas is the best player on tour when it comes to scoring birdies. Thomas is top 5 in strokes gained for approaching the green, tee to green, and the official golf ranking. Finau isn’t far behind Thomas since he is top 15 in strokes gained tee to green, total strokes gained, and the official world golf ranking. Thomas is better statistically in every aspect against Finau, but I don’t believe that Thomas will win this matchup. I see Finau doing what Finau does perfectly. Which is light the course on fire Saturday, go into Sunday with a chance to win the Masters, and then fall apart. It’s been that way for Finau’s entire career. Why would it change now?

The pick: Tony Finau +145 

Written by OutKick Bets

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