Betting Super Bowl LVI – Passing Props

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We’ve gone through rushing props, we’ve covered receiving props, so let’s now take on our passing props. There is an obvious correlation between these and the receiving props, but it isn’t exact so don’t just blindly bet Stafford over because you think Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham will get over their receiving yards, for example.

Speaking of Stafford, let’s start with his yardage. In the first game of the playoffs, the Cardinals kept him to just 202 yards passing. After that, the Buccaneers and 49ers allowed Stafford to get over 300 yards. Against the Buccaneers, he did have one 70 yard pass and at least one other long pass allowed. The Bengals defense has been very successful. Against the Chiefs, they looked like they were going to be torched, but the second half they basically shut down the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes. Could they do that to the Rams and Stafford? Of course. I think Stafford’s line is set pretty reasonably at 281.5. I personally will not play this, but I also wouldn’t play it any other way than the over. If this becomes any semblance of a shootout, Stafford will be at over 300 yards.

On the other side, Joe Burrow is going to have to lead the team. I don’t even really expect a balanced offensive attack. In the second half it might be surprising to see the Bengals have more than 10 rushing attempts. The big question… will Burrow have enough time to get the ball out of his hands? I expect the Bengals to have a plan that allows short quick throws to help the offensive line as much as possible. So far, the Rams have been very stingy against the pass in the playoffs. They allowed 329 to Brady, but he’s the greatest of all time. Even as good as Burrow is, he has an uphill battle against the Rams defense. I’m going to play Burrow under on his 276.5 yards. He only went over the total once in the playoffs and I feel like even with him having to pass frequently, the Rams defense will stop him enough. I do expect this to be a nail-biter.

I mentioned that I expect Burrow to have a lot of short passes. To me, I want to play his over 36.5 attempts as a result. He has gone over this in the last two games, and he went to 34 in the first playoff game. Those were games they were competitive in. If they are competitive in this, he should hit it. If they are getting beaten badly, I think he still has to throw a ton.

I’m taking Stafford to get over 24.5 completions. He has gotten there in the past two games and it really isn’t that unrealistic to think that he can do it again. If they get three touchdown drives, he could accomplish it on those drives alone. The only game the Bengals didn’t allow 24+ completions was against the Titans.

The juice is pretty high on the interceptions. I don’t actually think Burrow throws one in this game (I don’t expect him to force it, going back to those short throws) so I’ll play no interception for Burrow at +100. Stafford is -172 for an interception in the game. I think he throws one, because he’s Matthew Stafford, and he throws one in more than 50% of the games this season. He has only thrown one in the playoffs though. I’ll sit it out because the juice isn’t worth the risk and the No isn’t rewarding enough at just +128.

Written by David Troy

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