Note: All odds in this article come from our partner, FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, new FanDuel Sportsbook users can win $100 on a $5 bet if Trevor Lawrence is selected first in the NFL Draft this Thursday. This is essentially free money. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.
The NFL Draft is rapidly approaching and because we
are degenerates love finding value, it is time to explore one of the most overhyped nights of the year. It needs to be stated that betting the draft is not easy. Don’t bet a lot on these. Most are just value bets rather than “sure things.” Predicting who will be drafted, predicting when, and by whom is very difficult, especially with trades and the overwhelming fact that football GMs are mostly unpredictable and do foolish things regularly.
The first pick is done. It has been for a year, so let’s not spend 500 words stating that. Trevor Lawrence is going to the Jaguars. Current odds at FanDuel Sportbook for Lawrence to be selected first are -50000, so if you have $50,000 lying around and want to win $100, go for it. FanDuel Sportsbook has an offer for 20-1 on Lawrence being selected first (new users only). Sign up and enjoy an easy win.
After that, most analysts agree that Zach Wilson will go number two. He is also listed at -10000 to be the second overall pick. Move to spot three, and this is where we might see some value. Are the 49ers going to take Mac Jones? He is the current favorite, but there are reports that they want Justin Fields. At +650, why not take a shot that they surprise people and take an athletic quarterback?
Where else can we see some value? Kyle Trask is one guy that I’m thinking about. FanDuel has him under the matchups vs. Kellen Mond. After reviewing multiple mock drafts, Mond is only occasionally taken before Trask and most of the time he goes to the Bears. I can’t imagine the Bears drafting Mond for a variety of reasons. I’ll take Trask at -102 to be drafted first. I think he is the better player and appeals to more teams. I will also take Mond at drafted over spot 75.5 at -110.
In all the mock drafts I’ve seen, the Bengals take Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, or Penei Sewell. A lot of analysts have Sewell ranked as the second-best player in the draft. Are they going to draft a weapon or protection for Burrow? I personally like taking Sewell to be drafted first over Chase at +146. Protection is important, kids. Since Burrow has already gotten hurt once, this is the smart decision. Then again, we are talking about Cincinnati…
A lot of people seem to think that Trey Lance is going to Denver. That’s pick number nine. If he does fall that far, we can get some nice value at +184 for his draft position of over 6.5. The majority of drafts I have seen have him going seven or nine, and if he is lower, it is the result of a trade. How could this lose? If the Falcons decide it is better to draft a QB than a TE, this should go down in flames with four QBs drafted in a row.
I see some value in under 0.5 running backs drafted in the first round of the draft at +250. You’re basically betting that Najee Harris won’t be drafted in the first round. With how running backs have slid in recent drafts, this is not a bad opportunity, in my opinion. Harris is also listed at a draft position of 28.5 with -110 either side. That means that, sure, he could be drafted under, but it is just as likely, in FanDuel’s opinion, that he would be drafted 29th or later.
One last thought. If you want to go for the exact order of the first four picks, here are a few way to play it… The majority of drafts go: Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Pitts (+145). The most value and most likely, to me, is Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Pitts (+900). The one that I’d base on rankings is Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance (+1900). And, finally, one lottery ticket would be Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones (+9500). The last one, to me, plays out with the clear first two picks, 49ers taking an athletic QB and the Falcons drafting Jones as an easy replacement for Matt Ryan. If I put $10 on the last one, I’m getting back $950. You’re not going to find much better parlay when the first two legs are basically guaranteed.
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