The Clippers responded nicely in Game 3 at home, finally winning and making this a little more competitive of a series. We are going to take a look at Game 4 and see if there are any areas of opportunity for bettors to make some cash.
I don’t really want to touch the spread or moneyline, which are essentially the same right now. The Suns are a slight -1 favorite, and a little more juiced on the moneyline. It is of course possible for the Suns to win by one point and a moneyline bet wins and a spread bet pushes, so if you want to bet it, take the moneyline for the Suns. I personally don’t see them winning tonight, but that is a lean not a play.
Deandre Ayton has been very strong this series for the Suns. I like him to go over his total tonight of 16.5 despite cash flowing on him getting under the total. He is averaging 14 field goal attempts per game this series, and he scored 18 in the last game which is his lowest total in the series so far. I’m taking him to get over, but I’ll also play him to get 20+ points at +205.
I’m going to play the under on the first-half point total. The game total has already been bet down by a basket and I think it could go down further before tipoff. For me, I’m focusing on the first half. The Clippers play at the second-slowest pace of all playoff teams so far. The Suns are also in the bottom half of teams for pace. Two of the first three games of the series have also gone under the posted total of 107.5. Play the under on the first half of the game today.
One last play I’m taking is also based on value, just like the Ayton play. I am playing Zubac to grab 12+ rebounds. He is getting more minutes lately and his biggest role is to clean the glass. Playing against Ayton does make it difficult, but 10 should be expected – his total is 9.5 and it has heavy juice on the over. So, if you’re more comfortable, take him to just get over his total. I’m looking at him to get to 12 and payout at +160.