Geoff Clark
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The No.15 TCU Horned Frogs (16-5, 5-3 in the Big XII) host the West Virginia Mountaineers (13-8, 2-6 in Big XII) for a conference showdown Tuesday. Tip-off at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena is set for 9 p.m. ET.
West Virginia has won back-to-back games and three of its past four — 2-2 against the spread (ATS — which includes a 74-65 victory vs. TCU at home Jan. 21st.
The Mountaineers crushed the Horned Frogs in the battle of possessions, committing five fewer turnovers (19-14) and grabbing 12 more boards (30-18).
TCU is 2-2 straight up (SU) and ATS in the last four games, most recently losing 84-71 at the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday.
Horned Frogs’ leading scorer and assist-man, Mike Miles, exited TCU’s loss to Mississippi State with an injury and has been ruled out for this game.
Betting Board (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline (ML): West Virginia (+105), TCU (-125)
- ATS: WEST VIRGINIA +1.5 (-110), TCU -1.5 (-110)
- Total — 142.5 — Over: -110, Under: -110
The line movement in West Virginia-TCU demonstrates how much of a difference Miles’ absence makes. TCU have been lowered from -4 on the opener despite roughly 70% of the action at DraftKings being on the Horned Frogs.
Public bettors see the “No. 15” in front of TCU plus the cheap spread and think “the Horned Frogs at this price is too good to pass up.”
Recreational bettors might use the zig-zag theory to talk themselves into a bet on the Horned Frogs. The logic being: “West Virginia ain’t beating TCU twice in eight days.”
But, without Miles active, the Horned Frogs are in trouble and the pros know it. The Mountaineers play aggressive on-ball defense and it’ll be easier for them to force TCU turnovers sans Miles.
The Horned Frogs are 344th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage so it’ll be tough for them to space the floor vs. the Mountaineers. TCU sunk just 2 of 8 shots from 3 against West Virginia last Tuesday.
Furthermore, TCU big Eddie Lampkin is “questionable” to play. If Lampkin misses this game, it could significantly weaken the Horned Frogs’ rebounding, which is already bad.
TCU is 298th nationally in defensive rebounding rate and West Virginia is 28th in offensive rebounding rate, according to Ken Pom. The Mountaineers beat the Horned Frogs 13-4 in offensive rebounds last Tuesday.
The most important aspect of basketball is possessions and it’s clear that West Virginia should get more possessions than TCU.
BET: West Virginia +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to a pick ’em
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