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Everyone likes points so there’s inherent value in taking the Under in primetime football games. The Arizona Cardinals (4-8) host the New England Patriots (6-6) at State Farm Stadium for Monday Night Football in Week 14 with the kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Patriots (-125), Cardinals (+105)
- Against the spread: Patriots -1.5 (-110), Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
- Total (Over/Under) — 43.5 — O: -110, UNDER: -110
First of all, both teams have been terrible on offense this season and lack big-play ability. Arizona has the fourth-fewest 20-yard-plus pass plays in the NFL and each is bottom-10 in 20-yard-plus runs.
The Patriots rank 26th in offensive expected points added per play (EPA/play) and 25th in success rate. The Cardinals rank 24th in offensive success rate and 23rd in EPA/play.
New England cannot sustain drives and the Cardinals cannot finish them. The Patriots are 28th in first downs and the Cardinals are 23rd in scoring rate even though Arizona has the seventh-longest average drive in the league.
Furthermore, New England will dictate the pace and will make Arizona dink & dunk to go the length of the field. The Patriots are 26th in seconds per play and New England QB Mac Jones is your model game manager.
The only real big-play threat the Cardinals have is a Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins pass. The Patriots beat the Cardinals 20-17 in November 2020 (Week 15) and the Under cashed on a 51-point total. New England held both Murray and Hopkins in check.
Also, Patriots coach Bill Belichick is known for taking away his opponent’s biggest weapon and New England’s defenses get better as the season progresses typically.
The Under has cashed in seven of New England’s past eight games in December. The Patriots have gone Under the total in five of their past six games.
On top of that, the Patriots are 3-6 O/U as road favorites since 2020. Over that span, the Cardinals are 8-14 O/U at home with a -5.3 O/U margin.
Finally, there’s a slight reverse line movement headed south of the total. Most of the money is on the Over at DraftKings, per VSIN. However, the Patriots-Cardinals total opened at 44 and has been lowered since.
BET: UNDER 43.5 Patriots-Cardinals (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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