Go UNDER In Marlins-Braves For Alcantara-Morton Duel

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It’s square because it’s the lowest total on the Friday MLB slate. But BET UNDER 7 (-120) in the Miami Marlins (55-75) meeting with the Atlanta Braves (81-51) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Marlins-Braves will go UNDER the total because of the sick starting pitching matchup and Miami’s god-awful lineup.

Miami Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara

Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara delivers a pitch in the 1st inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Justin Berl/Getty Images)

Miami needs Alcantara (12-6, 2.13 ERA) to be the stopper of a 4-game losing skid. He is a big favorite to win the 2022 NL Cy Young (-700) at DraftKings with some of the best stuff in MLB.

Furthermore, Alcantara mowed down Atlanta’s lineup in their previous meetings and has been dominant in 2022. In their last five meetings, Alcantara is 4-1 with a 0.97 ERA, with a 38/9 K/BB rate.

He has thrown 17 innings with a 21/2 K/BB rate and 1 earned run (ER) in 2 games vs. the Braves this season. Also, Alcantara is 9-16 Over/Under (O/U) this season and 5-8-1 O/U with totals of 7 or less.

Atlanta Braves RHP Charlie Morton

Atlanta Braves starter Charlie Morton pitches against the Houston Astros at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Brett Davis/Getty Images)

Morton (6-5, 4.10 ERA) has picked it up post-All-Star break after a slow start and pitches better at home.

He has a 3.27 ERA in the 2nd-half of the season (4.45 1st-half ERA), 1.04 WHIP (1.25 1st-half WHIP) and a 4.15 K/BB rate (3.08 K/BB rate in 1st-half).

At home, Morton has a 3.07 ERA (5.24 road ERA), 1.01 WHIP (1.39 road WHIP) and 4.08 K/BB rate (2.69 K/BB rate on the road) in 13 starts. Morton has allowed just 2 ER in his last 4 home starts vs. the Angels, Phillies, Mets and Astros.

Additionally, Morton is facing a Miami lineup in the dumps. Over the last month, the Marlins have the worst wRC+ (70), wOBA (.264) and WAR (-0.6) in MLB, per FanGraphs.

Finally, the public is split on the total for Marlins-Braves but most of the money is on the Under. In fact, a slight majority is on the Over according to Pregame.com. Whereas roughly 95% of the cash is on the Under.

Let’s follow the money and BET UNDER 7 (-120) in Marlins-Braves at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • A $120 bet on UNDER 7 (-120) returns a $100 profit if Marlins-Braves combine for six or fewer runs.

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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