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Scoring will be at a premium when the Seattle Seahawks (7-6) host the San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Lumen Field for Thursday Night Football in Week 15. 49ers-Seahawks in Week 2 went Under the 40-point total by six points after San Francisco beat Seattle 27-7.
Somehow this 49ers-Seahawks meeting opened with a 43.5-point total. Both teams have critical injuries on offense and San Francisco’s defense shut out Seattle’s offense in the previous meeting.
Perhaps this is the market overreacting to the Seahawks going Over the total in four of their last five games and the 49ers cashing Over bets in three of their last four. However, for me, those recent Over trends give some value to the UNDER 43 in Seahawks-49ers.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: 49ers (-175), Seahawks (+150)
- Against the spread: 49ers -3.5 (+100), Seahawks +3.5 (-120)
- Total — 43 — Over (O): -110, UNDER (U): -110
San Francisco’s world-beating defense
This Niners defense is effing stacked. 49ers pass rusher Nick Bosa has the second-best odds at DraftKings to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
San Francisco has the best linebacker room in the league. The Niners are fourth in defensive dropback expected points added per play (EPA/play) as well.
The 49ers’ defense demolished the Seahawks in Week 2. Seattle’s offense had season lows in total yards (216), first downs (14) and rushing yards (36) and the 49ers forced three Seahawks turnovers.
In fact, Seattle’s only points in the 27-7 beatdown were off of a blocked field goal return touchdown when the Seahawks were losing 20-0.
More importantly …
Each team is banged-up
Don’t listen to me about this, I’m not a doctor. But, OutKick’s Dr. David Chao is and he’s already locked in an UNDER 43.5 bet in 49ers-Seahawks earlier this week.
Dr. Chao is on a heater betting the NFL this season and the biggest factor for him in this matchup is the cluster injuries to both offenses.
49ers third-string rookie QB Brock Purdy is still dealing with the consequences of getting blasted on the first play of the game last week vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The sack was overturned because of a bogus roughing the passer penalty. Sorry, I’m salty because I bet Tampa plus the points but the damage was done.
Purdy was limited in practice all week with an oblique injury. Then “ribs” showed up alongside “oblique” next to Purdy’s name on the injury report.
Furthermore, Purdy will be missing All-Pro WR Deebo Samuel who exited last week’s game early with a couple of leg injuries.
Also, Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker III has been managing an ankle injury and sat out last week’s game against the Carolina Panthers.
Even with Walker and RB Rashaad Penny both active for Week 2, Seattle’s run game bottled up by San Francisco. And per Pro Football Focus, the Seahawks’ offensive line has the biggest run blocking mismatch of Week 15.
UNDER is the ‘sharp’ play
The total for 49ers-Seahawks is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. According to VSIN, nearly two-thirds of the bets placed have been at DraftKings on the Over at the time of writing.
Whereas a slight majority of the cash is on the Under. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because wiseguys make bigger bets than your average Joe.
This is even more true in primetime games, which get a ton of betting action. With that in mind, primetime games are 17-24-2 O/U this season.
The oddsmakers are following the money too. 49ers-Seahawks opened with a 43.5-point total but has been lowered despite money pouring in on the Over earlier in the week.
Plus both teams have played more to the Under in these spots recently. Since the beginning of last season, the Seahawks 6-9-1 O/U as an underdog and the 49ers are 4-7 O/U as a favorite.
On top of that …
‘Styles make fights’
San Francisco has the second-slowest pace in the NFL and ran it 45 times Week 2 vs. Seattle. I don’t see that changing on TNF because the Seahawks are 27th in rushing defense EPA/play.
The Niners will probably be more inclined to run the ball considering they have a third-string QB making his second career start against a divisional foe on the road in primetime.
Also, the Seahawks have one of the worst third-down defenses in the NFL. The Niners should control the tempo and move the chains vs. Seattle. San Francisco ran the ball 45 times in Week 2 with QB Jimmy Garoppolo and Samuel in the lineup.
The Seahawks will go along with this program because head coach Pete Carroll got dragged for years by analytics nerds for not “letting Russ cook.” Carroll is old-school in that he likes to establish the run.
Finally, Seattle is eighth in third-down conversion rate but 23rd in red zone scoring rate. If these rates hold up, our UNDER will be looking good. It would mean the Seahawks are hanging onto the ball but trading TDs for FGs.
BET: UNDER 43 (-110) in 49ers-Seahawks at DraftKings Sportsbook
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