Geoff Clark
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We are on the UNDER 45.5 (-110) in the Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) visit to Nissan Stadium in Week 4 to take on the Tennessee Titans (0-2) for the following reasons:
- Both have strong defensive lines and weak offensive lines.
- A majority of the betting public is on the Over.
- The situational trends point to an Under.
Betting Deets (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Raiders (-125), Titans (+105)
- Against the spread: Raider -2 (-110), Titans +2 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 45.5 — O: -110, UNDER: -110
Football Stuff
Tennessee announced earlier this week that Pro Bowl LT Taylor Lewan would be sidelined for the season with a knee injury. Titans already had the worst pass-blocking matchup of Week 3 vs. Vegas’s defense, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Also, first-year DE Chandler Jones wreaked havoc on Tennessee’s offensive line while playing for the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 last season.
Jones sacked Titans QB Ryan Tannehill five times in Arizona’s 38-13 beatdown of the Titans. He made Lewan look like a child out there and Lewan is one of the better offensive tackles in the NFL.
The Raiders struggle with run blocking and have the fourth-worst run-blocking matchup of Week 3 vs. Tennessee’s defensive line, per PFF.
There could be a lot of wasted possessions behind these bad offensive lines. Both teams rank in the top-10 of defensive 3rd-down conversion rate.
The Titans will probably stick to what they know best in this back-against-the-wall game. 0-3 in the NFL is a death sentence so expect Tennessee to give a lot of carries to RB Derrick Henry.
Tennessee plays the second-slowest pace in the NFL (according to Football Outsiders) because it likes to establish the run.
Trends & Market Stuff Point To An Under Play
The Raiders are 2-7 O/U with a -5.9 O/U margin when their total is at or lower than the key number of 47 since the beginning of 2020. Vegas is 0-4 O/U in the last four road games. The Titans 5-9 O/U with a -3.0 O/U margin over that span in those situations and 0-6 O/U in the last six home games.
Finally, these trends are in the opposite direction of the betting public. According to Pregame.com, roughly three-fourths of the action is on the Over. But, the total has fallen from a 47-point opener. It seems like the sportsbooks are following the trends rather than the noise as well.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET UNDER 45.5 (-110) in the RAIDERS-TITANS game.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
24-22
It’s a cruel game.